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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 25 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 14N91W TO 10N100W TO 10N104W, 
then transitions to ITCZ which continues west-southwest to 
10N110W TO 07.5N123W TO low pres near 12N131.5W 1013 MB then 
resume from 10N134W TO beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 11.5N between 80W and 
99W, and within 300 nm NE quadrant of low at 12N131.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered near 27N123W this morning has 
collapsed and is becoming absorbed in a stronger ridge building 
SE into the region from a 1033 mb high near 35N150W to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh NW to N winds across the offshore 
waters of Baja California will increase modestly tonight through 
late Sat, and then persist through Sun. Seas across this area 
are currently running 5-7 ft and are expected to gradually build 
to 6 to 9 ft tonight through Sun.

Gulf of California: A fresh W to SW breeze is expected N of 29N 
this evening as a weak surface low tracks eastward across the 
northern gulf waters. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail 
across the central and southern Gulf through Sunday, with strong 
afternoon through evening seabreezes along the Mexican coastline 
from Mazatlan to Guaymas each of the next few days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage 
flow is expected through early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough has lifted northward of its typical position 
in response to broad low pressure that has developed over the 
Yucatan peninsula and Central America. This scenario will 
support gentle to moderate southwest to west winds in the waters 
west of Central America through Mon, with seas expected to be 
generally 4 to 7 ft through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front has become ill defined from near 30N129W 
TO 28N128.5W TO 21.5N140W. NW swell associated with this front 
will maintain 8-9 ft seas in the waters N of 29N W of 130W 
through Sat morning. 

Elsewhere, the building ridge across the north central Pacific 
is producing a modest pressure gradient across the tradewind 
belt, with fresh winds generally from 10N to 20N to the west of 
118W. A low pressure center was captured by an afternoon 
scatterometer pass near 12N131.5W, and showed a broad area of 20 
to 25 kt NE winds within 150 nm across the NW quadrant. The low 
will weaken to a trough by late Sat as it shifts westward. 
Meanwhile the associated high will shift E into the NE Pacific, 
and maintain fresh tradewinds and seas 7-9 ft across the 
tradewind belt through the weekend.

$$
Stripling