AXPZ20 KNHC 252203
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 25 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 14N91W TO 10N100W TO 10N104W,
then transitions to ITCZ which continues west-southwest to
10N110W TO 07.5N123W TO low pres near 12N131.5W 1013 MB then
resume from 10N134W TO beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 06N to 11.5N between 80W and
99W, and within 300 nm NE quadrant of low at 12N131.5W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak high pressure centered near 27N123W this morning has
collapsed and is becoming absorbed in a stronger ridge building
SE into the region from a 1033 mb high near 35N150W to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh NW to N winds across the offshore
waters of Baja California will increase modestly tonight through
late Sat, and then persist through Sun. Seas across this area
are currently running 5-7 ft and are expected to gradually build
to 6 to 9 ft tonight through Sun.
Gulf of California: A fresh W to SW breeze is expected N of 29N
this evening as a weak surface low tracks eastward across the
northern gulf waters. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail
across the central and southern Gulf through Sunday, with strong
afternoon through evening seabreezes along the Mexican coastline
from Mazatlan to Guaymas each of the next few days.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage
flow is expected through early Sat.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough has lifted northward of its typical position
in response to broad low pressure that has developed over the
Yucatan peninsula and Central America. This scenario will
support gentle to moderate southwest to west winds in the waters
west of Central America through Mon, with seas expected to be
generally 4 to 7 ft through the weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening cold front has become ill defined from near 30N129W
TO 28N128.5W TO 21.5N140W. NW swell associated with this front
will maintain 8-9 ft seas in the waters N of 29N W of 130W
through Sat morning.
Elsewhere, the building ridge across the north central Pacific
is producing a modest pressure gradient across the tradewind
belt, with fresh winds generally from 10N to 20N to the west of
118W. A low pressure center was captured by an afternoon
scatterometer pass near 12N131.5W, and showed a broad area of 20
to 25 kt NE winds within 150 nm across the NW quadrant. The low
will weaken to a trough by late Sat as it shifts westward.
Meanwhile the associated high will shift E into the NE Pacific,
and maintain fresh tradewinds and seas 7-9 ft across the
tradewind belt through the weekend.