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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



889 
AXPZ20 KNHC 210839
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 10N99W to 07N113W to 
06N120W. The ITCZ begins near 06N120W and continues to 05N133W, 
then resumes near 06N138W to beyond 140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N E of 90W, from 03N 
to 10N between 96W and 114W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W 
and 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a ridge west of the Baja 
California and lower pressure across the SW CONUS and Mexico 
supports moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters as 
indicated by latest scatterometer data. The scatterometer also 
show a small area of strong NW winds between Punta Eugenia and 
Cabo San Lazaro. Seas N of 23N range between 9 to 10 ft in NW 
swell. Seas S of 23N to the offshore waters of Jalisco range 
between the 8 to 9 ft as indicated by latest altimeter data. 
These conditions will prevail through Thu night with strong 
winds and seas to 13 ft developing N of Punta Eugenia Tue night 
through Wed night as a cold front moves across Baja Norte into 
the Gulf of California. Seas will gradually subside Thu through 
Fri night. Gentle to moderate NW winds with seas to 7 ft are 
expected during the remainder weekend.

Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the offshore waters 
of Guerrero and Oaxaca through early Sat. The next Tehuantepec 
gap wind event is likely on Sun morning.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W winds will develop 
over the northern gulf N of 29N Tue night through early Thu as a 
cold front moves across the area. Seas will build to 8 ft Wed 
night and subside Thu morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas to 6 ft will dominate the 
offshore waters N of the monsoon trough through Sat. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds will dominate the waters south of the monsoon 
trough through Wed morning when winds will start to gradually 
diminish. During this period seas in SW swell will range from 5 
to 8 ft.

Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable 
large scale lift over this region will help contribute to the 
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
well into the upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce 
heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad and strong ridge anchored NW of the area continue to 
support moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 10N W of 120W with 
seas to 10 ft. These conditions will prevail through Fri evening 
as the ridge starts to weaken. However, seas in the NE forecast 
waters N of 24N will reach 11 to 14 ft Wed evening through Thu 
evening as a cold front passes through Baja California Norte. 
Winds less than 20 kt prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, a surface 
trough from 09N134W to 03N136W is supporting scattered moderate 
convection from 03N to 09N W of 134W.

$$
Ramos