AXPZ20 KNHC 210839
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 21 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 10N99W to 07N113W to
06N120W. The ITCZ begins near 06N120W and continues to 05N133W,
then resumes near 06N138W to beyond 140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N E of 90W, from 03N
to 10N between 96W and 114W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between a ridge west of the Baja
California and lower pressure across the SW CONUS and Mexico
supports moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters as
indicated by latest scatterometer data. The scatterometer also
show a small area of strong NW winds between Punta Eugenia and
Cabo San Lazaro. Seas N of 23N range between 9 to 10 ft in NW
swell. Seas S of 23N to the offshore waters of Jalisco range
between the 8 to 9 ft as indicated by latest altimeter data.
These conditions will prevail through Thu night with strong
winds and seas to 13 ft developing N of Punta Eugenia Tue night
through Wed night as a cold front moves across Baja Norte into
the Gulf of California. Seas will gradually subside Thu through
Fri night. Gentle to moderate NW winds with seas to 7 ft are
expected during the remainder weekend.
Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the offshore waters
of Guerrero and Oaxaca through early Sat. The next Tehuantepec
gap wind event is likely on Sun morning.
Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W winds will develop
over the northern gulf N of 29N Tue night through early Thu as a
cold front moves across the area. Seas will build to 8 ft Wed
night and subside Thu morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds and seas to 6 ft will dominate the
offshore waters N of the monsoon trough through Sat. Moderate to
fresh SW winds will dominate the waters south of the monsoon
trough through Wed morning when winds will start to gradually
diminish. During this period seas in SW swell will range from 5
to 8 ft.
Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable
large scale lift over this region will help contribute to the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
well into the upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce
heavy rain and strong gusty winds.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad and strong ridge anchored NW of the area continue to
support moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 10N W of 120W with
seas to 10 ft. These conditions will prevail through Fri evening
as the ridge starts to weaken. However, seas in the NE forecast
waters N of 24N will reach 11 to 14 ft Wed evening through Thu
evening as a cold front passes through Baja California Norte.
Winds less than 20 kt prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, a surface
trough from 09N134W to 03N136W is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 03N to 09N W of 134W.