AXPZ20 KNHC 212114
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2110 UTC Sat Sep 21 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 26.7N 111.1W at 21/2100
UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within
60 nm NE quadrant. Lorena was recently downgraded to a tropical
storm based on reconnaissance aircraft data. A northward motion
is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue
moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours,
and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on
Sunday. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm
early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter.
Interests on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Lorena. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 19.6N 110.5W at 21/2100
UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted between 60 nm and 180 nm
SW quadrant. A turn toward the north-northwest with a slight
increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight.
Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early
next week. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is
expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 18.0N 131.6W at 21/2100 UTC
moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm NE and SW
quadrants. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is
forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to
northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next several days. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave axis is near 89W north of 03N, moving west
around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 10N between 84W and 89W.
A tropical wave axis is near 101W, moving west around 5-10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 10N to 14N between 98W and 102W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 10N86W to 12N94W to
11N101W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko from 14N133W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between
111W and 124W, and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough west of
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Hazardous winds and rough seas associated with Tropical Storm
Lorena are impacting the southern and central Gulf of California.
Marine conditions will improve on Sun as a weakening Lorena is
expected to track inland. Please see the Special Features section
above for more information on Lorena.
The low-level center of Tropical Storm Mario is completely
exposed based on recent satellite imagery. Mario is producing
hazardous winds and very rough seas in the offshore waters from
Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, including the Revillagigedo
Islands, as well as near the entrance to the Gulf of California.
Marine conditions will improve into early next week as Mario
continues weakening while tracking north-northwestward, passing
offshore of Baja California Sur. Please see the Special Features
section above for more information on Mario.
From Mon through Wed, a weak surface ridge will become re-
established over the region, leading to quiescent winds and seas.
No significant long-period swell or gap wind events are expected
over the next several days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon
trough, generally south of 12N, through the next several days.
Offshore seas are up to 8-9 ft due to S to SW swell and fresh SW
winds well off the coast of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.
These seas will gradually subside late Sun into early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.
A surface ridge extends SE into the northern waters from 30N137W
to 20N120W. The pressure gradient between Kiko and this ridge is
supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the waters
north of 17N and west of 132W, with seas to 8 ft based on earlier
altimeter data. Elsewhere, a small area of 8 ft seas in SW swell
persists south of 01S and west of 110W. These conditions will
subside by Sun night.