AXPZ20 KNHC 271551
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1521 UTC Thu Feb 27 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over NE Mexico
and Texas is funneling winds through the Chivela Pass, which
become N to NE strong gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. While no
observations of winds or seas were available in the Gulf this
morning, Salina Cruz is reporting 35 kt N winds as of 12Z. This
implies substantially stronger over water. Strong gale
conditions will persist through the next couple days before
diminishing Sun morning. Large dangerous seas to about 25 ft
are occurring with these winds, and these will only drop to a
peak of 20 ft for the next few days. Marine interests transiting
across or in the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware
of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary
action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N82W to 01N98W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N98W to 07N127W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 117W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for more details about
a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gulf of California: High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is
forcing a NW fresh to strong breeze across the Gulf of California
today, which will weaken by Fri morning. No ship observations
were available, though maximum seas are estimated to be 8-9 ft.
Increasing NW winds over the Gulf of California are again
expected on Sun and Mon.
Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters
northwest of Baja California. Fresh NE winds off the northern
Baja peninsula will weaken in the afternoon. Large NW swell will
impact the waters west of Baja California Sun and Mon, along
with increasing NW winds. Peak swell are anticipated to reach
near 15 ft on Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Large NW swell generated by winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
propagating into the waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today
and should continue through early Sun. Seas will reach to 18 ft
along the offshore boundary between Guatemala and Mexico today,
and then remain near 12 ft through Sun.
Gulf of Papagayo: Building high pressure over Central America
will force a Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event beginning tonight,
with NE strong to near gale conditions resulting through Mon. It
is possible that this will be upgraded to a gale warning, if
conditions warrant. Peak seas will pulse to 12-13 ft.
Gulf of Panama: The same building high pressure will cause N
fresh to strong breezes over the Gulf of Panama Fri through Mon.
Peak seas will pulse to 8-9 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail across
the remainder of the week into early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1037 mb high is centered west of California this morning. The
pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ to the south is
causing NE to E fresh to strong breeze trades between 10N and
15N. As the high is anticipated to build in further, the strong
trades should expand in area and reach to near gale condition by
Sun. Peak seas may build to around 15 ft on Sun and Mon west of
130W between 05N and 15N.
Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California
Sun and Mon, along with increasing NW winds. Peak swell are
anticipated to reach near 15 ft on Mon.