000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242108
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehunatepec region is slated to begin early Mon morning as a
ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf 
of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35-40 kt, 
with seas building to 9 to 12 ft by late Mon morning. Looking 
ahead, winds will further increase to minimal storm force by Mon 
night with seas building to 20 to 22 ft. Gusty winds to near 
hurricane force may occur on Mon night. A Storm Warning will 
likely be issued tonight. Large seas generated from this strong 
gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, 
with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue 
morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec early next week should be aware of this upcoming gap 
wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous
marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast 
to diminish below storm force by late Tue morning but strong gale
force winds of 40-45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then 
forecast to continue through early Wed morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details
on this event.

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows 
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N90W to 06N101W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N101W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. A
surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs from 12N116W to 
06N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough 
axis from 09N to 12N between 115W and 120W. Elsewhere convection
is limited. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over NW Mexico and the southern Gulf of
California. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the 
Baja California offshore waters and this trough supports fresh to
strong NW winds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia with
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly fresh NW winds are noted N of Punta 
Eugenia, including the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino, with moderate
seas. Fresh to strong SW winds are also seen from 22N to 24N 
within about 90 nm E of the trough axis, including the entrance
to the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
forecast waters, including the Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move 
inland Mexico tonight while dissipating. The associated winds  
will diminish to 15 kt by this evening, with the exception of 20
kt westerly winds in the vicinity of Los Cabos. Looking ahead, 
a very strong gap wind event is slated to begin in the Tehuantepec
region Mon morning, with winds rapidly increasing to storm force
by Mon evening. Very rough seas will be associated with these 
wind speeds. Please, see the Special Features section for more 
information on this event.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within 
these winds. Moderate N winds with slight to moderate seas 
prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle with 
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to 
strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through 
early Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds in this region will resume
again Mon night into Tue, and reach near gale force speeds by Tue
evening, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft. Moderate to locally 
fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through
Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through 
the middle of the next week. Seas generated by a very strong gap
wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the 
offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning 
Mon evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 19 ft range in NW 
swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas may persist through Thu
night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends southward from a 1025 mb high pressure located 
near 34N136W across the northern forecast waters, particularly N
of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting an 
area of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 17N and 
W of 125W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds based on 
altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 
are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build southward
across the forecast region on Sun, with a high pressure cell 
developing near 32N136W. The high pressure will move E through
Tue as a cold front approaches the NW corner of the forecast 
waters. The front will reach from 30N135W to 26N140W by Mon 
night, and from 30N133W to 24N140W by Tue morning. Fresh to
strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front by Mon 
night, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt on Tue. Rough seas 
are forecast in the wake of the front.

$$
GR