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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support
a gap wind event with gale force winds to 35 kt in the 
Tehuantepec region today along with 12 ft seas. These conditions
will start to diminish this evening. For more information on 
this event, see the latest East Pacific High Seas Forecast 
product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W
to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends from near 05N95W to 07N108W, then 
resumes W of a pair of troughs near 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within the troughs from 
10N to 16N between 110W and 115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Recent ship observations and an altimeter pass from 13 UTC showed
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in Mexican offshore
waters, outside of the Tehuantepec area. An upper trough farther
west of the Pacific is supporting a few showers across the
Revillagigedo Islands, but no other areas of showers or
thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja 
California Norte Mon and Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will
persist, except for occasionally winds to 20 kt over the northern
and central Gulf of California. The next strong cold front has 
the potential to reach the Gulf of Tehunatepec region by the end 
of the week with winds possibly reaching gale force. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo 
region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with 
seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the 
coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Mon with seas building to 8 
ft. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama 
through early next week. Remainder of area, winds should remain 
tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters through tonight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Deep low pressure is centered west of the area near 21N144W,
assciated with a persistent and broad mid to upper level trough 
over the region. A cold front also associated with the upper 
trough is approaching 140W from the west, to the north of 25N. 
This pattern is support moderate to fresh winds from 20N to 25N 
west of 130W. NW swell with combinded wave heights of 8 to 11 ft 
are noted north of 20N and west of 135W. The broad mid to upper 
level trough is supporting a pair of surface troughs is noted 
over the deep tropics from 10N to 15N between 110W and 125W. 
Scattered shwoers and a few thunderstorms are noted near these 
troughs, as are NE winds to 20 kt and seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4 to 6 ft seas are noted.
East of 110W, combined seas are 5 to 7 ft, in a mix of NE to E
swell originating from the gap wind events over Tehuantepec and
Papagayo, mixing with longer period NW and SE swell.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will stall W of the area.
Large swell will continue moving E across the NW portion of the 
basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few 
days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail 
across the area over the next few days with convection. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of 
the week. 

$$
Christensen