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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170918
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0918 UTC Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as 
far S as 14.5N95.5W, accompanied by seas to 13 ft, will 
gradually diminish through late this morning. Strong to near 
gale winds will then pulse through late Sun morning. Near gale 
force northerly winds will resume on Sun evening and continue 
through late Mon morning, then develop again on Mon evening and 
continue through Tue morning. Model guidance is hinting at 
minimal gale force conditions developing again briefly on Tue 
night. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia 
at 07N78W then across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific
coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W to 06N95W. The intertropical
convergence zone extends from 06N95W to 08N110W to 08N120W to
09N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 06N to 08N between 100W and 103W, from 09N to 12N between
109W and 115W, from 07N to 09N between 114W and 116W, from 07N to
10N between 120W and 123W, from 07N to 09N between 129W and 136W,
and from 08N to 13N to the W of 137W in the vicinity of a surface
trough.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: refer to the Special Features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds along with seas of 2
ft or less prevail. Moderate NW winds will develop across the 
entire gulf waters on Sun night and Mon, then becoming light and
variable again Tue and Tue night.

A weak NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters 
W of 100W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast 
around the meandering ridge through the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas 
building briefly to 8 ft well downstream, are expected through 
the middle of next week.

Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal 
flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough 
through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Long period northeasterly swell is mixing with cross-equatorial 
swell across the waters S of 14N between 92W and 116W. This 
swell will propagate W reaching across the waters S of 15N 
between 105W and 124W on Sun, then gradually subside to less than
8 ft by the middle of next week. 

A ridge is meandering from 32N130W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh 
trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed from 06N to 19N 
W of 122W, will subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon.

A cold front is entering at 30N140W and will be accompanied by 
a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will 
weaken early next week, but still reach the Baja Peninsula on 
Wed. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft late 
Mon. 

Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will 
reach 30N140W late Sun night, with yet another set Tue afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong W winds N 
of 30N between 125W and 140W on Wed. Strong NE trades are also 
forecast from 15N to 22N W of 135W by early Wed. 

$$
Lewitsky