AXPZ20 KNHC 260821
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to
move by north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
High pressure will surge in behind the front across eastern
Mexico and northerly winds will rapidly funnel through the
Chivela Pass with gale force winds forecast beginning Wed evening
in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will approach strong gale early
Thu and then again Thu night. The gale force winds are forecast
to persist through early Sat morning. Very large seas will build
with these winds with seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well
west-southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, while peak seas
will be around 20 ft Thu night through Fri.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details..
Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front
is moving across Baja California, with large long-period NW
swell west of Baja California expected through tonight.
Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are peaking now west of
Baja California Norte. There is a significant risk of hazardous
surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through this evening.
Please refer to your local statements issued by your national
meteorological service for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 08N75W to 04N90W to 06N112W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N119W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between the coast of
Colombia and 80W, and from 04N to 07N between 94W and 107W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between
110W and 113W.
A low pressure area of 1008 mb is located between the termination
of the monsoon trough and commencement of the ITCZ near 05N115W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between
115W and 119W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as well as details on a very
large NW swell event west of Baja California Norte.
A strong cold front is moving across the region extending from
30N118W to 26N112W to 21N127W. Gale force winds that were
occurring from 29N to 31N in the Gulf of California and west of
Baja California have recently diminished to fresh to near gale
force. Seas are peaking at 8-11 ft from 29N to 31N in the Gulf of
California. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less and seas will
subside to less than 8 ft this evening.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N, except
fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes. South of 18N,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell
offshore Baja California and south of Punta Eugenia, and 5-8 ft
north of 18N to the Revillagigedo Islands, 3 ft or less in the
central and southern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft south of 18N.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed.
Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California
Thu through the end of the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the
Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong Wed night
through Sat night with building seas by the end of the week into
the weekend. Seas will peak between 8-10 ft at that time.
Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Panama have diminished to moderate to fresh. Fresh to strong
winds will return Thu night through Fri night. Seas will pulse
to 5-6 ft the next couple of days, and then 6-8 ft Thu night
through Sat night.
Gentle to moderate winds will continue to prevail elsewhere.
Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region will spread across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1034 mb northwest of the area near 33N145W
extends a dirty ridge well to the east-southeast to near 13N107W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the
ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft
range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong
pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through this
A large NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across
the area behind a strong cold front which extends from 26N112W to
21N127W, with seas currently 8-20 ft north of 20N, highest east
of 130W. The swell will spread southward across much of the
forecast area north of 15N between 110W and 135W while the cold
front gradually dissipates.
The next strong cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed with
fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through early
Thu, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large northerly swell
will accompany this system, propagating southward across the
entire area through the end of the week. Winds and seas diminish
somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend.