AXPZ20 KNHC 242044
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Rick is centered near 16.3N 101.7W at 24/2100 UTC
moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm NE
semicircle and 120 nm SW semicircle. Rick is forecast to
strengthen and is likely to become a Category 2 hurricane before
landfall late tonight in Guerrero or Michoacan. A N to NNW motion
is expected into Mon, with some increase in forward speed
Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane force winds
are possible between Tecpan de Galeana and Punta San Telmo. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Swells generated by Rick are affecting
portions of the southwestern coast. These swells are likely to
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Rick is expected to produce 8 to 15 inches of rain with isolated
storm total amounts in excess of 20 inches across mainly coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through
Tue. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for
A tropical wave axis is along 88W N of 03N into Honduras, moving
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 13N between 82W and 92W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa
Rica near 10N85W to 11N93W. Another segment extends from
southwest of Hurricane Rick at 13N110W and continues to a 1011
mb low pressure near 11N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N125W to
beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection associated with
Hurricane Rick and the tropical wave, described above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N
between 110W and 134W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin, although
locally fresh NW winds have developed offshore Cabo Corrientes.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft persist off Baja California in decaying NW
swell. Mixed swell is likely between Cabo San Lucas, Socorro
Island and Cabo Corrientes with components of the NW swell
entering the area along with swell generated from Rick farther
For the forecast, NW swell mainly NW of the Revillagigedo Islands
will decay below 8 ft Mon, but new NW swell will move into areas
offshore Baja California Norte Mon night, and spread S to Socorro
Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue night may reach 15 ft offshore
Baja California, before decaying through Thu. Strong W gap winds
are forecast Mon night in the northern Gulf of California, ahead
of a cold front. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong winds
may develop Tue and Tue night offshore Baja California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon
trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador.
Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central
American offshore waters into midweek. Seas will range from 4 to
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A large area of long period NW swell is moving through the
region, with seas of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. The swell
subside below 8 ft through Mon. Another reinforcing group of
large NW swell is entering the NW basin today, and seas will rise
to over 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W Mon through Tue night.