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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242103
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1857 UTC Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern 
Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic 
ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N 
and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or 
less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter 
volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to 
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please 
refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall 
advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 01N103W to 03N115W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N115W to 03N124W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N 
between 104W and 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
California through Sun morning before diminishing. Winds will 
strengthen over the northern Gulf of California Tue. Seas of 6 
to 8 ft west of the Baja peninsula will subside through Sun. 
Another set of NW swell will move into the waters off Baja 
California Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Thu, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then 
forecast tonight and on Sun night with fresh winds expected to 
resume on Mon and Tue nights.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1042 mb centered NW of the area near 41N147W 
extends a ridge SE to near 20N114W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north 
of the ITCZ and west of 120W. The pressure gradient will further
tighten early next week as the high pressure center shifts 
closer to the forecast area. This will expand areal coverage of 
fresh to strong winds across the forecast waters, with seas 
building to 8 to 12 ft across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N 
W of 129W by early Tue.

Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Monday
night, building seas to 8 to 16 ft seas across the Pacific 
waters north of 22N between 117W and 132W by Tue night.

$$
AL