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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261502
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to
move across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front across eastern Mexico. This
will create a tight pressure gradient over this area and the
eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Northerly winds will 
rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale force winds 
forecast beginning Wed evening in the Tehuantepec region. Winds 
will approach strong gale force early Thu and then again Thu 
night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through early
Sat morning. This event will generate very large seas, which 
will peak around 20 ft in the Tehuantepec region Thu night 
through Fri. Seas generated from this gap wind event will 
propagate well west- southwest away from the Tehuantepec region. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details..

Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: Large, long-period, 
NW swell is propagating across the waters west of Baja 
California. Wave heights up to 17 ft are peaking now west of 
Baja California Norte. There is a significant risk of hazardous 
surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through this evening. 
Please refer to your local statements issued by your national 
meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N87W to low pres near
05.5N116W to 06N125W. The ITCZ continues from 06N125W to 
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 00N to 06N between the coast of Colombia and 80W, from 03N 
to 07N between 92W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 03N to 10N between 110W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as well as details on a
large NW swell event west of Baja California Norte.

Gulf of California: Fresh to near gale force winds prevail over 
the northern Gulf of California, with seas to 8 ft. Winds will 
diminish to 20 kt or less and seas will subside to less than 8 ft
this evening.

Fresh to strong winds prevail west of Baja California Norte, 
with seas to 17 ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere 
north of 18N, except fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes.
South of 18N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft
in NW swell offshore Baja California and south of Punta Eugenia,
and 5-8 ft north of 18N to the Revillagigedo Islands, 3 ft or 
less in the central and southern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft 
south of 18N.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern 
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed. 
Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California 
Thu through the end of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the  
Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong Wed night 
through Sat night with building seas by the end of the week into 
the weekend. Seas will peak between 8-10 ft at that time.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Panama. Winds will strengthen Thu night through Fri night. Seas 
of 4-6 ft will prevail the next couple of days, building to 6-8 
ft Thu night through Sat night.

Gentle to moderate winds will continue to prevail elsewhere.

Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region will spread across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb is centered northwest of the area near 
33N140W. A ridge extends from this area of high pressure across
the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and within the
monsoon trough, is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north 
of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 
ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong 
pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through this 
evening.

Large NW-N swell continues across the area, with seas greater
than 8 ft over the waters N of 04N and west of 110W. Seas will
gradually subside over the next few days. A cold front will drop
south of 30N on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and
behind the front through early Thu, mainly north of 25N. This
swell will usher in another set of large northerly swell. The
swell will propagate southward across the entire area through 
the end of the week. Winds and seas will diminish slightly this 
weekend.

$$
AL