AXPZ20 KNHC 152205
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico will move across the basin through early Saturday. Strong
northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela
Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region beginning tonight, and continuing through early Sun. Seas
are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to a 1012 low near
06N100W to 07N117W. The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 09N between 78W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 112W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region.
Please see Special Features section for more details.
Mainly light to gentle winds with locally moderate NW to N winds
will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and
SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of
the area. NW swell propagating through the waters west of the
Baja California with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft
tonight, then increase again Sat evening as reinforcing NW swell
enters the region. This new swell will spread across the
remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through
Mon when a center of low pressure NW of Punta Eugenia begin to
move across the northern Baja offshore waters. The low will
deepen and remain nearly stationary through Wed evening and then
gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas to 14 ft are expected over the northern and central Baja
California peninsula offshore waters Mon night through early
Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin
region of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds
across the northern and central Gulf of California. These winds
will diminish to moderate this evening. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are forecast along the gulf beginning Mon evening
associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds
will increase to fresh to strong Mon morning and prevail through
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through
the middle of next week. Large seas to be generated by an
upcoming gale event in the Tehuantepec region will impact the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat and Sun.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of
Panama Mon and Tue next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the
northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W.
Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell
and NE-E wind waves.
Large long period NW swell will sweep into the NW part of the
forecast waters this evening, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near
30N140W. Another set of NW swell will increase seas to 20 ft
near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will
maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters
west of 100W through the middle of next week.