000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front in the Gulf of 
Mexico will move across the basin through early Saturday. Strong 
northerly winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela 
Pass and generate gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region beginning tonight, and continuing through early Sun. Seas
are expected to build to 14 ft during the time of gale conditions.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to a 1012 low near 
06N100W to 07N117W. The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N 
to 09N between 78W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

There is a gale warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region. 
Please see Special Features section for more details.

Mainly light to gentle winds with locally moderate NW to N winds
will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California and 
SW Mexico through Mon evening as a ridge remains in place NW of 
the area. NW swell propagating through the waters west of the 
Baja California with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft 
tonight, then increase again Sat evening as reinforcing NW swell 
enters the region. This new swell will spread across the 
remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California through 
Mon when a center of low pressure NW of Punta Eugenia begin to
move across the northern Baja offshore waters. The low will 
deepen and remain nearly stationary through Wed evening and then
gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas to 14 ft are expected over the northern and central Baja
California peninsula offshore waters Mon night through early 
Wed.

Gulf of California: High pressure centered over the Great Basin 
region of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds 
across the northern and central Gulf of California. These winds 
will diminish to moderate this evening. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are forecast along the gulf beginning Mon evening
associated with the low developing NW of Punta Eugenia. Winds
will increase to fresh to strong Mon morning and prevail through
Tue morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through 
the middle of next week. Large seas to be generated by an
upcoming gale event in the Tehuantepec region will impact the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat and Sun. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama Mon and Tue next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure well north of the area extends a ridge into the 
northern forecast waters. The gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures near the convergence zone is supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. 
Seas in this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of NW swell 
and NE-E wind waves. 

Large long period NW swell will sweep into the NW part of the 
forecast waters this evening, with maximum seas to 18-19 ft near
30N140W. Another set of NW swell will increase seas to 20 ft 
near 30N140W early Sun morning. Reinforcing NW swell will 
maintain seas greater than 8 ft over much of the forecast waters 
west of 100W through the middle of next week. 

$$
Ramos