AXPZ20 KNHC 150358
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 14 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Twenty-E is centered near 13.0N 108.4W at
15/0300 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 10N to 18N between 102W and 109W. A turn to the north-
northeast is expected to occur by Sunday. Gradual strengthening
is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression
could become a tropical storm on Friday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.
Global and regional models are indicating the next strong gale
force wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is
expected to start late tonight through Sun. The strongest winds
will begin Fri morning through Sat night. Building seas are
expected to reach up 17 ft with the peak winds. See the latest
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
A tropical wave with axis along 89W north of 04N is moving west
at about 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated
with this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N88W to a 1007
mb low near 12N108W to 10N116W to 11N121W. The ITCZ continues
from 11N121W to 15N125W, then resumes from 10N130W to 06N136W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17.5N
between 100W and 110W, and from 08N to 11N between 94W and 97W,
and from 05N to 10N W of 138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details about
the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California,
supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights
of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Fri. Conditions
for the Baja California Sur and Jalisco offshore waters will
deteriorate afterwards as Tropical Depression Twenty-E moves
through this region. See the Special Features section for
further information on the tropical cyclone. Otherwise, light
and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours
Sat through Mon. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow
will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama,
Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will
remain in the 4-7 ft range.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system
in the central north Pacific is moving across the NW forecast
waters with wave heights of 8-12 ft.
A 1009 mb low pressure area is near 13N129W with NE winds in the
20 to 25 kt range within 180 nm northwest quadrant of the low
and 8 to 9 ft seas. The low will move westward with the
associated winds and seas, and open into a trough Fri night.
Seas associated with this area of low pressure will merge with
the large area of long period NW swell propagating across the NW
forecast waters on Fri.