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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1343 UTC Wed Jan 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico is shifting eastward. This is causing the pressure 
gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to decrease. Minimal
gale force winds over the Gulf will quickly fall to strong by 
this afternoon and to light and variable tonight. No follow on gale
force gap wind events are expected during the upcoming week.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details on this Gale Warning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N81W to low pres 1012
mb near 07N88W to 03.5N97W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N97W to 
08N132W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 100W and 111W.
An upper-level low centered near 15N145W is interacting with the
ITCZ to generate scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection within 150 nm either side of a line from 04N140W to 
15N130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features above for details regarding the 
gale force gap wind event that is winding down in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

High pressure west of Baja California is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds along the Pacific Coast of Baja. This
wind pattern should continue for the remainder of this week as
the high remains in place. Winds are light to moderate over the 
northern Gulf of California and moderate over the southern Gulf 
of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the 
central and southern Gulf of California tonight through Thu night
as high pressure builds over the U.S. Great Basin.

Long-period NW swell propagating across the region will reach 
the Revillagigedo Islands this afternoon. Seas will then slowly 
subside through Fri as the swell decays. Another round of long 
period NW swell associated with an approaching cold front will 
reach the Baja California waters beginning late Fri night and 
build seas to 8 ft or greater there during the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A high pressure ridge over the western Caribbean will continue 
to support strong NE to E winds over and downstream of the 
Papagayo region through Thu morning, strongest at night. Seas 
will build to 8 ft each morning following the peak winds. Winds 
will taper over the Gulf of Papagayo during the remainder of the 
week as the ridge weakens.

Swell generated by the current Tehuantepec gale force wind event
will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
through tonight, then seas will subside Thu as the swell decay.

Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama region will 
become fresh to locally strong Fri night, then gradually decrease
to moderate by Mon night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad area of fresh to strong northeast winds is present 
roughly from 06N to 20N, west of 125W, as 1025 mb high pressure 
resides over the NW portion of the discussion area. These winds 
are likely to increase during the next couple days as the ridge 
remains in place and low-level troughing is induced north of the 
ITCZ in the vicinity of 135W by an an upper-level low just to the W.
Otherwise, combined seas greater than 8 ft in prevalent long
period NW swell will dominate the region W of 115W, with seas 
running between 11 and 12 ft in the vicinity of the strongest 
winds.

Another set of long period NW swell will reach the northwest 
part of the area Thu, then propagate SE and decay during the 
upcoming weekend. The cold front ushering the swell into the 
region is expected to weaken as it crosses the far northern 
waters Sat and Sun.

$$
CAM