AXPZ20 KNHC 240932
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
At 0900 UTC tropical depression five-e is located near 15.1N
115.6W or about 580 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, moving north at 9 kt. The minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with 40 kt gusts.
Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of southeast
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N
to 17N between 111W and 119W. Depression five is expected to
intensify to a tropical storm later today. A weakening trend
should begin on Monday, and the cyclone will likely become a
remnant low by the middle of next week. See the NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC
for further details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to low pressure
near 14N105W 1010 mb to 14N109W, then resumes near 12N117W to
08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W and continues to 09N132W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 04N between 81W
and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N
between 88W and 102W, from 12N to 19N between 96W and 110W and
from 06N to 12N between 117W and 123W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
NW light to gentle winds are across the offshore waters west of
Baja California. Winds will remain variable 10 kt or less
through early Monday and then will become from the NW increasing
to a max of 15 kt in the afternoon near the coast due to the
influence of the sea breeze. Southerly winds in the northern
Gulf of California are 20 kt north of 29N, while light to
moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas in the region of strongest
winds are up to 5 ft while 2-3 ft seas are south of 29N. Winds
and seas will continue to subside today.
Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues
to gradually build across the regional waters and will affect
the waters from central Baja California to Central America
through Monday. 5 to 7 ft seas off of Southern Mexico will build
to 6-8 ft by Sun morning before slowly subsiding late Sun night
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected
south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell
into the regional waters with a peak near 8 ft will gradually
subside today through Mon.
A tropical wave across Central America along about 90W will
continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active
convection in the region during this time.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near
126W. To the S and SW of the ridge to just N of the ITCZ,
moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging
between 5-7 ft. A surface trough west of the ITCZ along 135W
supports N to NW winds W of its axis as indicated by latest
scatterometer data. The high pressure center is forecast to
shift NW and reorganize, while a weak trough offshore of Baja
California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will
gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W,
producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7-10 ft
across the northern waters.
Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is
propagating into the northern waters today, and will build seas
modestly to 8 ft north of 29N between 123W and 127W. The cross-
equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical
waters south of 20N and west of 120W and will maintain seas 5-7
ft there through Mon.
A 1010 mb low pressure is near 14N105W generating scattered
moderate to strong convection. See monsoon convection section
above for details. Global models indicate that this low will
linger across this area through at least Mon and continue to
generate active convection.