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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 0900 UTC tropical depression five-e is located near 15.1N 
115.6W or about 580 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja 
California, moving north at 9 kt. The minimum central pressure 
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with 40 kt gusts. 
Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of southeast 
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N 
to 17N between 111W and 119W. Depression five is expected to 
intensify to a tropical storm later today. A weakening trend 
should begin on Monday, and the cyclone will likely become a 
remnant low by the middle of next week. See the NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC 
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to low pressure 
near 14N105W 1010 mb to 14N109W, then resumes near 12N117W to 
08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W and continues to 09N132W. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 04N between 81W 
and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N 
between 88W and 102W, from 12N to 19N between 96W and 110W and 
from 06N to 12N between 117W and 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW light to gentle winds are across the offshore waters west of 
Baja California. Winds will remain variable 10 kt or less 
through early Monday and then will become from the NW increasing 
to a max of 15 kt in the afternoon near the coast due to the 
influence of the sea breeze. Southerly winds in the northern 
Gulf of California are 20 kt north of 29N, while light to 
moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas in the region of strongest 
winds are up to 5 ft while 2-3 ft seas are south of 29N. Winds 
and seas will continue to subside today.  

Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues 
to gradually build across the regional waters and will affect 
the waters from central Baja California to Central America 
through Monday. 5 to 7 ft seas off of Southern Mexico will build 
to 6-8 ft by Sun morning before slowly subsiding late Sun night 
and Mon.   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next 
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the 
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected 
south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell 
into the regional waters with a peak near 8 ft will gradually 
subside today through Mon.

A tropical wave across Central America along about 90W will 
continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active 
convection in the region during this time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near 
126W. To the S and SW of the ridge to just N of the ITCZ, 
moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging 
between 5-7 ft. A surface trough west of the ITCZ along 135W 
supports N to NW winds W of its axis as indicated by latest 
scatterometer data. The high pressure center is forecast to 
shift NW and reorganize, while a weak trough offshore of Baja 
California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will 
gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W, 
producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7-10 ft 
across the northern waters.

Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is 
propagating into the northern waters today, and will build seas 
modestly to 8 ft north of 29N between 123W and 127W. The cross-
equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical 
waters south of 20N and west of 120W and will maintain seas 5-7 
ft there through Mon.

A 1010 mb low pressure is near 14N105W generating scattered 
moderate to strong convection. See monsoon convection section 
above for details. Global models indicate that this low will 
linger across this area through at least Mon and continue to 
generate active convection. 

$$
Ramos