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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241552
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 19.1N 113.2W at 24/1500
UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas to 10 ft within the area of strongest winds. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm NW quadrant 
of the storm center. On the forecast track, a gradual turn 
toward the west and southwest is expected during the next 24 to 
36 hours. Weakening is forecast, and Newton is expected to become
a tropical depression later today and degenerate to a remnant 
low pressure area by late Sunday or early Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 97W and
103W, and from 10N to 13N between 127W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on T.S. 
Newton.

Outside of Newton, gentle to locally moderate NW winds are along 
the Baja California peninsula offshore waters with seas to 6 ft 
in NW swell. Light variable winds are along the Gulf of 
California with seas to 3 ft, seas higher at the entrance of the 
gulf. Fresh gap winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec with seas to 7 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder SW 
Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Newton will weaken to a 
tropical depression near 19.3N 114.3W this evening, move to 19.1N
115.7W Sun morning, 18.5N 117.1W Sun evening, become a remnant 
low and move to 17.5N 118.5W Mon morning, 16.3N 119.8W Mon 
evening, and dissipate Tue morning. As Newton moves away from 
the Baja California Sur offshore waters this weekend, moderate 
NW winds will develop in the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters, continuing through early next week. Moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of 
Tehuantepec, increasing to fresh to strong Mon night into Tue and
continuing through the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, while 
light and variable winds are north of the trough. Seas are 5-7 
ft in southerly swell across the offshore waters.

For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is 
expected. Winds between the Galapagos and Ecuador will pulse
to fresh S to SW winds Sun as southerly swell continue to
propagate across the region. Seas to 8 ft are expected with this
swell through Mon when winds are forecast to gradually diminish
back to moderate speeds. Winds will further diminish to gentle 
to moderate by the middle of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features above for details on T.S. Newton. 

Weak low pressure is analyzed near 21N125W. Fresh NE winds are
noted within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the low center, 
where seas are up to 7 ft. This feature will dissipate today.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the monsoon trough
and W of 124W with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern 
forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial 
S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 
130W, and maintain seas to 9 ft along the equator through Mon. 
Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by 
early next week.

$$
ERA