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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222101
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2100 UTC Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure in southern Mexico and the equatorial trough in the
eastern north Pacific is supporting gale force across the 
Tehuantepec region. The area of high pressure N of the area
continues to gradually weaken, loosening the pressure gradient 
across the region, and diminishing winds. By Sun afternoon, 
winds are forecast to diminish below gale force. Large swell 
generated by this gap wind event will produce a large area of 8 
ft or greater seas from 02N to 13N between 90W and 110W by Sun 
morning. Marine interests transiting the Tehuantepec region this 
weekend should be aware of hazardous marine conditions and take 
necessary actions to avoid the area of highest winds and seas.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or 
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 04N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N94W to 03N108W to 05N120W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N 
to 08N between 125W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section for details. Looking ahead, the 
next strong gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, possibly
reaching storm force, is forecast to commence on Wed night.

Elsewhere, a weakening cold front is currently moving across the
northern Gulf of California, with high pressure building in its
wake west of the Baja California peninsula. This is supporting
moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf of California, and
gentle to moderate winds over the waters west of the Baja
California peninsula. High pressure will build slightly and
prevail west of the Baja peninsula through the middle of next
week. This will support moderate to locally fresh winds west of 
Baja California. A new set of NW swell is entering the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte. This swell will spread southward
over the next couple of days, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater
west of the Baja peninsula all the way south to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands by Mon afternoon. 

Gulf of California: High pressure will build across the Great
Basin region of the United States by the middle of next week.
This will help to strengthen winds over the Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

NW swell generated by the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue to propagate into the waters offshore 
Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun.

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse
during the overnight hours across the Papagayo region through 
the weekend. Winds will diminish early next week as the pressure 
gradient weakens. Maximum seas will reach between 8-10 ft during 
the period of peak winds. 

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will 
pulse across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 3N-4N 
through the weekend, diminishing by early next week. Maximum seas
will build to 7-9 ft at times with these winds.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will 
prevail into Tue. 

An unseasonably strong southerly jet is forecast to develop 
along the lee of the Andes over eastern Ecuador and SW Colombia 
late tonight. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong 
topographical forcing.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1032 mb, centered N of the
area near 33N138W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 121W. Seas
in the 8-12 ft range prevails over this area. The area of high
pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next few days,
maintaining this area of fresh to strong trades. The high center
will then start to drift NE and weaken through the middle of next
week. This will help diminish the trades by midweek. 

NE-E swell generated by the ongoing gap wind events in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will propagate far from its 
source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W 
and 110W this weekend, gradually decaying by early next week.

$$
AL