AXPZ20 KNHC 220243
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 27.6N 111.2W at 22/0300
UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N to 28N in the Gulf
of California. The center of Lorena is expected to continue
moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours,
and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on
Sunday. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical
storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated
thereafter. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 20.3N 110.8W at 22/0300
UTC moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
There is no significant convection associated with the storm. A
turn toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected later today or tonight. Mario is then
forecast to continue on that heading through early next week.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to
become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details.
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.5N 132.5W at 22/0300 UTC
moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 21N between 128W
and 133W. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is
forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward
to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next several days. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave is from 02N to 14N with axis along 90W, moving
west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 12N between 84W and 96W.
A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 102W, moving
west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from 09N to 16N between 98W and 107W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N86W to 12N92W to
11N100W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko near 14N133W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 110W
and 128W, and from 10N to 16N W of 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Hazardous winds and rough seas associated with Tropical Storm
Lorena are impacting the central Gulf of California. Marine
conditions will improve on Sun as a weakening Lorena makes
landfall. See the Special Features section above for more
information on Lorena. The low-level center of Tropical Storm
Mario is completely exposed. However, Mario continue to produce
hazardous winds and very rough seas in the offshore waters of
Nayarit Mexico and Baja California Sur, including the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in SW swell associated
with Mario will continue to affect the entrance to the Gulf of
California through Sun evening. Marine conditions will
deteriorate over the central Baja California offshore waters Sun
night through Mon night as Mario continues tracking northward
while weakening. Please see the Special Features section above
for more information on Mario. Light to gentle variable winds
will establish over the region Tue night and prevail through
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon
trough through Thu with seas in the range of 6-9 ft due to S to
SW swell. Winds will likely increase to fresh to strong over the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Thu night as the
pressure deepens in the vicinity of the monsoon trough.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.
A surface ridge prevails N of 22N W of 120W. The pressure
gradient between Kiko and this ridge is supporting moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 18N and
west of 120W, with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, an area of 8 ft seas
in SW swell between 104W and 120W associated with tropical storm
Mario will drift SW through Mon night before subsiding.