000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201536
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building
southward into northeastern Mexico is supporting gale-force
northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with
seas of up to 15 ft. These gales and very rough seas will prevail
through tonight, following by a brief lull Tue. A reinforcing
surge of Arctic-derived high pressure surging into the western
Gulf of Mexico Tue will lead to even higher winds and seas late
Tue with storm-force winds developing Tue night and seas 
approaching 25 ft on Wed. Storm-force winds will then prevail
through Wed, with gales continuing into Thu. 
Marine interests transiting in or near the the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this week take the necessary action to avoid 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the
Great Basin of the United States will support gale force NW to N
winds over the northern Gulf of California with seas building to
11 ft tonight and Tue. At the same time, fresh to strong NW to N
winds will dominate the remainder of the Gulf region, with seas 
of 8-10 ft. In addition, these strong winds are forecast to 
funnel through the gaps in the northern Baja California Peninsula
into the Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia
on Tue. Conditions will improve on Wed.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Panama/Colombia border near 
07N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 04N115W and 
to 09N137W. Surface trough is analyzed from 16N137W to 09N141W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and east
of 98W and similar convection is evident from 10N to 16N and 
west of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm
Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the
northern Gulf of California.

A subtropical ridge located well west of Baja California Norte
continues to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across 
the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring northwest of Guadalupe 
Island. Primarily moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
present in the central and southern Gulf of California waters, 
while light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the 
northern gulf waters.

Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are 
also occurring in the offshore waters of SW Mexico, especially 
west of 105W. Elsewhere, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh 
winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Long period NW swell 
will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight into early 
Mon morning building seas to 11 ft there. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 
mid-week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A robust high pressure north of the area forces fresh to locally
strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 
downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Farther 
east, moderate northerly winds and slight seas are present in the
Gulf of Panama. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly 
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of the monsoon trough, 
especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo through at least late next week. Seas will build to 8-10
ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by strong 
gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across 
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon 
night, then again Wed through Thu. Seas are forecast to peak
around 16 ft in NW swell Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong E-SE winds are occurring north of 23N and west 
of 135W. Seas in these waters are 10-14 ft. The remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific is dominated by a broad ridge north of 
the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to locally strong 
easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 23N and west of 
110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening
low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will 
continue to affect the NW waters through late Tue. Large NW 
swell will continue to propagate into the waters west of 125W, 
and mix with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind 
flow over the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 12 ft seas 
across much of the area west of 125W through the early part of 
the week. These wave heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft, and 
diminish in areal extent through mid week. Moderate winds and 
seas will persist elsewhere. By midweek, strong NE-E winds and
moderate to rough seas will reach the eastern waters from storm-
force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

$$
Konarik