AXPZ20 KNHC 220403
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 22 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Willa centered near 17.7N 107.2W at 22/0300 UTC moving
N-NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt.
Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 75 nm of
the center, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong
convection in bands within 300 nm of the center. Some of these
rain bands will bring very heavy rainfall to the Pacific coast
of Mexico from 103W to 107W as Willa tracks N, and later turns NE
across the central Mexican offshore waters through Tue evening.
Large swells generated by Willa will continue to reach the
mainland Mexican coast between 102W and 108W through Tue night,
and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please refer to local forecasts from the
Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on
heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Willa. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.
Tropical Storm Vicente is centered near 13.9N 98.7W at 22/0300
UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed in a band
within 150 nm over the W semicircle of the center. Vicente will
continue on a general westward track through the southern
Mexican offshore waters through Mon morning then turn N and
gradually weaken dissipating by late Wed. Refer to the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC for additional details.
A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06N along 88.5W with scattered
moderate isolated strong convection flaring within 60 nm of
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia
at 10N76W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N83W and
through a tropical wave at 09N88W then turns NW to 12N96W where
it loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with
Tropical Cyclone Vicente. The monsoon trough resumes SW of
Hurricane Willa at 13N111W and continues SW through an embedded
1008 mb surface low at 11N117W to 09N130W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm
either side of a line from 05N78W to 09N86W, and within 150 nm
of 10N93W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to
12N between 130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical
Cyclones Vicente and Willa.
W of the Baja california Peninsula...Gentle to locally moderate
NW to N flow is expected through Mon evening when the pressure
gradient will tighten, supporting moderate to locally fresh
northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula on Tue into
early Wed as Willa passes to the S. Large southerly swell from
Tropical Cyclone Willa will propagate N through the waters W of
Baja beginning on Mon evening reaching as far N as 26N early Wed
before beginning to subside.
Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected
through late Mon when large southerly swell from Tropical
Cyclone Willa will propagate into the southern gulf waters and
then persist through late Tue night. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are expected across the gulf waters S of 24.5N
on Tue night into Wed as Willa passes S of the gulf entrance.
Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is
expected through late Mon morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through
Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere
N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh
southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 8 ft seas forecast
through late Mon followed by moderate SW flow and 4 to 6 ft seas
through the middle of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on
Tropical Cyclone Willa.
A 1008 mb low near 11N117W will drift W for the next several
days with moderate southerly flow and 6 to 8 ft seas forecast
within 300 nm SE of the low. This low has a low chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the 5 days.
A surface high will meander near 27N136W with moderate to
locally fresh anticyclonic flow forecast across the tropical
waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and W of 122W through
the middle of the week. An area of 7 to 9 ft seas is observed
across the tropical waters from 12N to 22N W of 134W. These
conditions will shift W of the area on Mon night.