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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Mon Sep 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.2N 123.1W at 16/0900 UTC
moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Kiko
remains a small but dangerous category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous strong convection 
is occurring within 45 nm SW semicircle. Elsewhere, scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N 
between 121W and 125W. A westward motion is expected to continue
through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is expected Tuesday
and Tuesday night, followed by a turn back to the west on 
Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple 
of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with
an area of low pressure centered near 10.5N106.5W. Recent satellite
wind data depicted fresh to locally strong winds in the SE and 
NW quadrants of this system. Conditions are conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression could form 
within the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is
likely to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east 
described below, and further development after that time is not 
anticipated. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North 
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave near 96W. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of 
the week as the system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel
to, the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance
during the next five days. Please see the Eastern North Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 96W south of 17N, moving west around
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 14N to 16N between 95W and 98W, and from 08N to 12N within
60 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 107W south of 18N, moving west around 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N 
within 90 nm west of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 10N90W to 12.5N102W to
1009 mb low pressure near 10.5N106.5W, then resumes from 13N126W
to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N134W to 11.5N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 240 nm of
the monsoon trough between 85W and 94W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 08N to 12N west of 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the offshore waters west of
Baja California. Light to gentle breezes prevail across these
waters, while gentle SE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
California per recent satellite wind data. Farther south, fresh 
to locally strong northerly winds were noted across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. These winds are expected to diminish later today. 
Earlier altimeter data showed 3-5 ft seas over the waters 
between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes.

Distant high pressure NW of the region will build toward the Baja
California waters early this week, supporting moderate to perhaps
locally fresh NW flow over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro
through mid week. Modest SW swell from distant Hurricane Kiko
will continue impacting the Baja offshore waters today, then
subside by Tue. Looking ahead, a tropical depression is likely to
form around the middle of the week off the coast of Mexico and 
could produce hazardous marine conditions in the offshore waters.
Local marine interests should continue to closely monitor the
latest NHC products.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Very active weather persists across the Central American offshore
waters with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the wake of a
tropical wave near 96W. Moderate to locally fresh SW flow prevails
south of the monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, per overnight
satellite wind data. Seas across this region are likely in the 
6-8 ft range based on earlier altimeter data. Fresh S to SW winds
will persist for the next several days with seas to 8 ft in mixed
SW swell and locally generated wind waves.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about Hurricane Kiko, as well as the potential for additional
tropical development later this week off the coast of Mexico.

A high pressure ridge over the northern waters will maintain 
moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W 
through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Weak low pressure
near 13N134W is producing fresh to locally strong winds and 8-9
ft seas. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary for
the next couple days before being absorbed by Kiko. 

Elsewhere, low pressure near 10.5N106.5W is producing fresh to
locally strong winds and 8-10 ft seas, primarily in the SE
quadrant. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. A broader area of seas to 8
ft is occurring roughly from 07N to 11N between 94W and 108W in
association with enhanced SW monsoon flow in the vicinity of two
tropical waves.

$$
Reinhart