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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070922
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure
gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to 
near gale-force northerly winds, along with seas of 8-10 ft. The
gradient will tighten slightly tonight allowing for winds to 
increase to minimal gale force. Winds will pulse to minimal gale 
force through Mon. Seas occasionally building to 11-13 ft. 
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at 
hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 08N93W to a 1011 mb low pres near 12N107W to 11N120W 
to a 1010 mb low pres near 15N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 10N and between 88W and 98W. 
Similar convection from 06N to 15N and between 112W and 122W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak ridge extends to the waters off Baja California,
supporting light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of
4-6 ft. The remnants of Paine continue to weaken well southwest
of Baja California Sur, sustaining light to gentle winds and seas
of 5-6 ft. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of
2-4 ft prevail in the Gulf of California.

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light and variable winds 
are found in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. Seas in 
these waters are 4-6 ft. 

For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event is expected across 
the Tehuantepec region through the Monday, with minimal gale 
force winds pulsing tonight through Mon. Elsewhere, the remnant 
low of Paine near 19.0N116W will continue to weaken, loosening 
the pressure gradient, and diminishing remnant winds and seas. 
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
across the remainder of the area through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds continue in 
the Papagayo region to about 88W. In the remainder of the
offshore waters, gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring 
south of 06N. Light to gentle SW winds are present north of 06N.
Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
pulse each night in the Papagayo region through Sat, becoming 
locally strong Fri night. Moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the
Equator this weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range 
in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala 
this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb subtropical ridge extends southward into the tropical 
eastern Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. 
The remnants of Paine are located near 19N116W and a few showers
are noted near the weak system. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are noted near the remnants of Paine. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are present from 13N to 
20N and between 123W and 138W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. A
recent altimeter pass captured seas up to 8 ft near 16N131W. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail in the rest of the 
basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail across the northern 
waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of 
the week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually 
dissipate. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then 
expected across the open waters this weekend into early next 
week.

$$
DELGADO