AXPZ20 KNHC 270340
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging down
eastern Mexico towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec area in the wake
of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
area will support minimal north to northeast gale force winds
through Tue morning. Seas will peak around 12 ft tonight.
A recent altimeter data pass indicated seas up to 9 ft
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W. Another
round of gale-force winds is possible Sun night through Mon
night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
07N90W to 08N100W to 10N115W to 11N126W. ITCZ extends from
11N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm north of the trough between 114W-117W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Please see the Special Features section above for details
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of
Elsewhere, fresh northwest winds are in the northern Gulf of
California with seas to 5 ft. Light and variable winds are over
the rest of the Gulf, except for gentle northwest winds over the
central Gulf. An area of fresh to strong northwest to north winds
are over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas
are 4-6 ft offshore of the Baja California Peninsula mainly due
to a northwest swell, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west-northwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec area.
A recent altimeter data pass indicated seas up to 9 ft downstream
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W.
For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue into early Sat, then fresh to strong
through Sun. Another round of gale-force winds is possible Sun
night through Mon night. Strong north winds over the northern
Gulf of California and also near the entrance of the Gulf will
diminish this evening. Fresh winds will develop near Cabo
Corrientes Sun through Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft
range due to a south to southwest across the offshore waters in
south to southwest swell.
For the forecast, fresh northeast winds will pulse to strong in
the Papagayo region beginning Sat night. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W.
Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. The monsoon trough stretches
northward to near 14N at 116W with an active area of convection
as is described above. Fresh to near gale-force winds are near
the monsoon trough in this area, with seas of 7-8 ft. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas of
mainly 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds near
the monsoon trough will propagate east-northeast toward the
Revillagigedo Islands through early Sat while diminishing.
Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through
early next week, except for locally and occasionally fresh speeds
in the west-central waters north of the ITCZ. Little change in
seas is forecast.