838 
AXPZ20 KNHC 281526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N100W to 07N110W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection extends from 05N to 08N east of 95W, from 08N
to 10N between 118W and 121W, and from 05N to 07N between 137W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 35N140W
southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Ship
observations and scatterometer satellite data from the past 
several hours show moderate to fresh NW flow off Baja California,
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Concurrent altimeter satellite
passes show 6 to 9 ft combined seas, mainly north of Punta
Eugenia, likely with a component of NW swell. Gentle breezes and
moderate combined seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure NE of Hawaii will 
drift NE and well offshore of California today through mid week, 
leading to a weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds 
across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across 
the waters to the west of Baja California today, and build this 
afternoon through mid week as strong northerly winds expand 
across the waters offshore of California. Seas will build to 8 to
12 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte early Mon, and 
gradually shift westward and build further Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of
Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. This activity is mostly due to
moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds well south of the 
region converging into the monsoon trough that extends across 
the region, along with weak divergent flow aloft. Meanwhile, gentle
to moderate winds persist across the offshore areas with moderate
combined seas in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through mid 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 
expected across the region Wed night through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1029 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N140W is
supporting a large area of fresh trade winds farther south into
the tropical Pacific west of 125W, as noted in recent scatterometer
satellite passes and buoy data. These winds in turn are 
supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in the same area, as noted in
concurrent altimeter satellite data. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The convergent trade wind flow
is supporting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms near
the ITCZ west of 130W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin
to drift NE this afternoon through mid week. This pressure 
pattern will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from 
the ITCZ to 24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will 
remain in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas 
at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 24N through Tue, with 
northerly swell offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 
to 12 ft early Mon through Wed, and gradually spreading westward 
to 130W. Little change is forecast across the remainder of the 
waters through mid week.

$$
Christensen