770 
AXPZ20 KNHC 201559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W from 05N to 16N. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 12N between 94W and
107W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N90W to 10N100W to
07N114W. The ITCZ continues from 07N114W to beyond 04N140W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection can be found from 03N to 10N east of 88W to 
the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 88W and 90W, and
from 04N to 10N W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Baja California offshore waters, anchored 
by a 1030 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 
39N138W. This system is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds W
of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are 5 to 8 ft N of Punta
Eugenia, and 4 to 7 ft between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas.
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf
of California, gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft primarily in SW
swell prevail, with the exception of slight seas in the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N
winds through Fri. Large NW swell over the Baja California Norte
waters will lead to rough seas across this region this week. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected
across the remainder of the waters into this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SE winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds occurring to the 
south. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters offshore of Central
and South America.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SE to E winds will occur 
north of the monsoon trough through midweek, with gentle to 
moderate SE to SW winds occurring to the south, from Costa Rica 
through Ecuador. By Thu, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are expected to develop in the Gulf of Papagayo, with winds 
likely continuing through this weekend. Elsewhere, a Southern 
Hemisphere swell will promote rough seas across the equatorial 
waters near the Galapagos Islands by midweek, with rough seas 
expanding farther north and east this weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Surface ridging extends over much of the eastern Pacific waters,
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered north of the area near 
39N138W. Latest scatterometer data show pockets of fresh to strong
N to NE winds occurring north of 20N and W of 120W. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds are in the trade wind zone. Large N to NE swell 
is promoting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N between 120W 
and 140W, as seen from altimeter data. Farther south, wind waves
in the 8 to 9 ft range prevail from 04N to 12N west of 132W. 
South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, locally strong NE winds will pulse north of 
20N through early Wed as a strong pressure gradient prevails 
between ridging to the north and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 
Widespread moderate to fresh NE winds will also continue north of
the monsoon trough through Wed, with winds diminishing for the 
second half of the week as high pressure to the north weakens. 
Large N to NE swell will support rough seas north of 15N through 
Wed, and offshore of Baja California Norte into this weekend. 
Farther south, wind-generated rough seas will continue from 05N 
to 15N west of 125W through late week. Elsewhere, a long-period S
to SW swell will promote rough seas across the equatorial waters
today into this weekend. 

$$
GR