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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232051
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2051 UTC Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Ashfall Advisory: The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S 
Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the 
surface through early Saturday N of 14N and E of 92W. Low level 
visibilities may be reduced to 1 nm. Mariners should exercise 
caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged 
to report the observation to the National Weather Service by 
calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more 
details on the ashfall advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica
near 09N83W to 02N100W. The ITCZ axis continues from 02N100W to
05N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is within an area bounded by 14N121W to 07N121W to 
07N128W to 13N135W to 16N134W to 20N115W to 14N121W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong northerly winds that
were occurring this morning have diminished as the pressure
gradient slackened. 

In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds in the
northern Gulf prevail with moderate NW to N winds in the central
and southern Gulf. Strengthening high pressure will develop 
fresh to strong NW winds across the far northern waters tonight 
with these conditions spreading southward across the central and 
southern Gulf by early Sat through Sat night. Seas may build to 
up to 8 ft during the strongest winds. The pressure gradient will
relax on Sun and Mon. The next cold front will approach Mon 
night and winds will become southerly ahead of it in the northern
Gulf while increasing to fresh to strong Mon night through Tue, 
with fresh northerly winds behind the front as it sinks southward
through the early part of the week.

Across the remainder of the open offshore waters of Mexico,
strengthening high pressure is increasing winds to fresh to
strong spreading S of 32N offshore of Baja California Norte.
Seas are also in the process of building to 7-10 ft in fresh NW 
swell. The conditions will gradually spread southward offshore of
Baja California through Sat morning, diminishing thereafter. The
associated seas should subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon, 
with another round of fresh to strong NW winds, accompanied by 
large NW swell, arriving at 30N120W early Tue with the next cold 
front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong NE winds will continue
to pulse offshore across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next
week, with seas occasionally building to 7-9 ft as downstream as
10N91W. Winds may briefly diminish during the afternoon hours
each day.

In the Gulf of Panama, fresh nocturnal N winds are expected 
across the western Gulf of Panama tonight with these conditions 
extending as far S as 05N80W. Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage 
flow is then forecast on Sat and Sun nights with fresh nocturnal 
winds expected to resume on Mon night. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to 
support fresh to strong NE trades and seas up to 8-12 ft across 
the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 110W 
through the weekend. A fresh batch of northerly swell in the 
form of 7-11 ft seas is propagating S of 32N, and will reaching 
along 22N between 115W and 130W on Sat before beginning to 
subside.

$$
Lewitsky