AXPZ20 KNHC 311716 AAA
Tropical Weather Discussion....Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends southwestward from the Panama/Colombia
border to 04N96W. Scattered moderate convection is present near
this trough from 01N to 08N between the Colombia coast and 94W.
An ITCZ continues westward from 04N96W to 07N122W, and from
06N127W to beyond the Equator at 138W. Another surface trough is
between the ITCZs near 06N126W. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is evident near the ITCZs and second trough from 03N
to 11N between 102W and 128W.
Updated Sections Below
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A modest surface trough is coupling with divergent flow aloft to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the
coast of Oaxaca and Chiapas States, Mexico. Moderate with locally
fresh northerly winds are present west of Baja California and the
Gulf of California. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell are noted west
of Baja, while seas of 2 to 4 ft mainly composed of wind waves
exist in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N to ENE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of
central and southern Mexico.
For the forecast, the cold front previously over the central
Gulf of California and northern Baja California Sur has
dissipated earlier this morning. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft west and
southwest of Baja California will gradually decay through this
evening, and subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Moderate with
locally fresh northerly winds will persist across Baja offshore
waters, and the Gulf of California through Sun night. Gentle
breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again west of Baja
California and the Gulf of California Mon through mid week as
another cold front approaches the region.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Enhanced by a mid-level trough, convergent surface winds are
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and
off the colombia and Ecuador coast, and near the Galapagos
Islands. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimeter derived
data indicated fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas off
the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail for the rest of
For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaraguan coast through Tue, and fresh NE
gap winds at the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate
long- period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore
waters the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge north of 25N related to a 1022 mb high pressure
near 32N125W is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh
trade winds from 05N to 22N west of 120W, with 7 to 10 ft
combined seas in a mix of local wind waves and mostly longer-
range NW swell. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds with seas at 6
to 8 ft in decaying NW swell are evident north of 22N west of
120W. Gentle breezes are noted east of 120W and south of 05N,
with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell. Refer to the Intertropical
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for weather in the area.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will build north of the
area through the early to middle part of next week. The surface
trough between the ITCZ segments will move eastward through Sun.
The combination of these two patterns will support increased
trade winds over tropical waters west of 125W Sun and Mon, with 8
to 11 ft combined seas. Looking ahead, a new group of northerly
swell will enter waters north of 25N starting late Mon night or
early Tue following another cold front moving into the region.