000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292049
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N90W to 08N100W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N100W to 07N110W to 08N120W, and from 05N131W
to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm
either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 95W and 105W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within
90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 105W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Jason-3 altimeter satellite pass from 15 UTC confirmed 
combined wave heights are reaching at least 10 ft west of 
Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte. This is due to NW
swell moving into the region associated with strong winds farther
north off southern California, between high pressure farther west
over the eastern Pacific, and lower pressure inland. The pattern
is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California
reaching as far south as Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Guadalupe Island through late Thu. Moderate to fresh SW winds
may pulse across the northern Gulf of California Tue night, 
following a dissipating cold front moving through the region. 
Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist across 
Mexican offshore waters along with moderate combined seas 
primarily in NW swell in open waters. Looking ahead, winds and 
seas will diminish off Baja California Fri and Sat as the high 
pressure north of the area weakens.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Isolated thunderstorms were recently active off the southwestern
Azuero peninsula of Panama, and along the coast of El Salvador.
But the thunderstorm activity off Panama and Costa Rica during 
the past couple of days has diminished greatly, with only a few
linger thunderstorms relegated to beyond 180 nm offshore where
moderate to fresh SW winds are converging toward the monsoon
trough. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes persist elsewhere 
across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3 to 5 ft combined 
seas primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will subside through 
tonight before new S swell raises seas slightly across the 
regional waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell 
is expected across the region Thu through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered north 
of the area near 35N140W to the southeast toward the
Revillagigedo Islands. A weak surface trough persists along the
ITCZ near 125W. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh
trade winds south of 20N and into the tropical Pacific west of 
120W, as noted by recent satellite scatterometer data. These 
winds in turn are supporting 8 to 9 ft combined seas in the same 
area, as measured with recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The 
convergent trade wind flow is supporting clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally from 06N to 10N between
105W and 125W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will  
drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will maintain 
fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N, and 
west of 125W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 8 to 9 ft
range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected
north of 25N through Tue, with northerly swell east of 125W to 
include offshore of Baja California Norte persisting to 8 to 12 
ft through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Looking
ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the week ahead of a
cold front moving eastward well to the north of the region. This
will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, although 
combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical Pacific west 
of 135W.

$$
Christensen