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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150316
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 11N74W to 07N80W to 07N99W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N99W to 07N123W to 05N127W to beyond 
02N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N 
between 80W and 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 92W and 108W, from 
04N to 10N between 112W and 130W, and from 02.5N to 04.5N between
136W and 139W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
and extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf 
of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate 
northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the open offshore
waters south of Baja. NW swell off Baja California Norte is
presently producing seas of 6-8 ft that will slowly subside to 
5-6 ft by Fri morning. Winds will increase slightly N of Cabo 
San Lazaro Fri and Sat as the high pressure shifts southward to 
near 31N.

Gulf of California: Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of California over the next several days, with 
the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the northern part
of the Gulf tonight and Thu as a weak low pressure moves across
the area. Increasing westerly winds of 20-25 kt are expected 
over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental this 
evening, and again Thu evening. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly gentle W-NW winds will prevail across
the Tehuantepec region this week. The GFS Model suggests a weak 
and brief gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night 
into Mon as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
The forecast currently calls for 20-25 kt northerly winds and 
seas in the 4-7 ft range.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, except
for fresh to locally strong offshore gap winds across the 
Papagayo region that are expected to continue through early Thu 
morning. Seas there will remain 6-7 ft overnight. Little change 
in wind conditions are expected through through Fri. Moderate 
sized SW swell moving into the regional waters will dominate the 
offshore waters through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of
15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
NE-E winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds are expected with seas in the 6-7 ft 
range across the tradewind belt south of 15N. High pressure will 
sink southward to along 31N late Thu through Fri. This will 
tighten the pressure gradient and freshen winds north of the ITCZ
Fri into the weekend. 

Looking ahead, a monsoon trough-like is forecast to develop E of
100W Fri through Sun, with an embedded weak surface low near
08N90W.

$$
Stripling