AXPZ20 KNHC 131917
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05.5N90W. The ITCZ
continues from 05.5N90W to 06N117W to 03N122W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 84W and 90W, from 03N to 08N between 94W and
100W, from 03N to 07N between 118W and 122W, and from 03N to 08N
W of 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of Baja
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of
California is supporting moderate winds west of the Baja
California peninsula. Gentle to moderate westerly winds prevail
elsewhere across the open offshore waters, with light to gentle
northerly winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the
7-9 ft range west of Baja California Norte, 6-8 ft off Baja
California Sur, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off
Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Moderate NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte
through through the week as the ridge persists. NW swell off
Baja California Norte, currently peaking around 9 ft, will
prevail into late Wed, with the highest seas across the outer
waters. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere into Wed.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly areawide Thu
through Fri as the high pressure weakens.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, with
seas in the 4-6 ft range. Little change in wind conditions are
expected through into Thu, except for moderate offshore gap winds
across the Papagayo region. Moderate sized SW swell has will
move through the offshore waters through Fri.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure ridging prevails across the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
waters N of 20N between 118W and 130W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft
range elsewhere N of 20N. Seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail
elsewhere. No significant change is expected the next couple of
days. High pressure will sink southward to along 30N late Thu
through Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient and freshen
winds north of the ITCZ Fri night into the weekend. Northerly
swell will continue to propagate south of 30N across the waters
between 118W and 130W through Thu.