000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032130 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 03 2025 Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 20.6N 111.7W, or about 170 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 03/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the system is devoid of deep convection. Flossie has been reduced to a swirl of low to mid-level type clouds, and is expected to maintain a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next couple of days. Flossie should continue to steadily weaken, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low tonight. It should dissipate completely by Sat evening. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 95W from 04N to 17N. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ahead of the wave from 12N to 15N between 96W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is along northwest Colombia westward through northern Panama and southern Costa Rica to 09N84W to 09N90W to 10N101W to 13N106W to 11N114W to 08N128W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N137W and to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 100W and 105W. Numerous moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W and 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the far offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and also in the Gulf of Papagayo region. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and the tropical wave along 95W is likely to support locally strong winds in the area. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the area described. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Flossie. Aside from conditions associated to Tropical Storm Flossie, the gradient related to high pressure over the offshore waters of Baja California is maintaining generally gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over these waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas are noted in the central and northern Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds and moderate to locally rough seas are over the southern Gulf of California due to the influence of Flossie. Elsewhere, an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass revealed moderate to fresh easterly winds in the far offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas due to a tighter pressure gradient associated with a passing tropical wave. Seas over these waters are 7-10 ft due to southerly swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas continue across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Flossie that is near 20.6N 111.7W, or about 170 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 03/1500 UTC with a maximum sustained wind speed of 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt and a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Flossie is forecast to become post-tropical and move to 21.4N 112.9W this evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, weaken to a remnant low near 22.6N 114.5W Fri morning, move to near 23.6N 116.2W Fri evening, to near near 24.3N 117.7W Sat morning, and dissipate by Sat evening. Elsewhere, large swell generated from Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Expect fresh to locally strong southeast winds through the Gulf of California through Fri morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong east to southeast winds and rough seas are possible off Oaxaca and Guerrero tonight through Fri as an area of low pressure moves to the west-northwestward and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of low pressure is currently associated with the tropical wave that is along 95W. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the far offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and also in the Gulf of Papagayo region. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and the tropical wave along 95W 1001 mb is likely to support locally strong winds in the area. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the area described. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds across the Papagayo region will diminish later today as the tropical wave along 95W continues westward. Low pressure is expected to develop downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec by tonight, possibly producing fresh to locally strong winds offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to large cross- equatorial south to southwest swell will affect the waters near the Galapagos Islands today. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast across the entire region over the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure over this part of the region supports moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds north of 20N, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Over the eastern waters, the pressure gradient associated with a tropical wave and high pressure to the north is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and a cross-equatorial swell is sustaining seas to around 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure will persist to the NW of the area through the remainder of the week, with little change in wind strength W of 120W. The dominant marine feature will be the large southerly swell continuing south of 10N west of 90W through late this afternoon, followed by another pulse of moderate SW swell over the weekend. Fresh to strong southwest winds will remain active for the next several days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W, generating waves that will mix with the longer-period southwest swell in that area. $$ Aguirre
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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Jul-2025 21:40:11 UTC