000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222152
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 12N108W to 08N119W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N119W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N
between 79W and 111W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 20N and
west of 115W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure 
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate 
N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. Locally
fresh winds are likely occurring near Punta Eugenia. Meanwhile, 
NW swell is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, 
beyond 90 nm offshore impacting the waters around Guadalupe 
Island. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, including 
the Gulf of California, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are
2 to 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf with seas to 2 ft across 
the rest of the Gulf. Seas range 5 to 6 ft along the southern 
Mexico offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke from regional 
agricultural fires has spread medium haze across the Oaxaca 
offshore waters near the coast and light haze across the rest of
the Mexico offshore waters. This could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will continue through Sun night. NW swell moving
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will subside 
below 8 ft by Thu. Winds in the Gulf of California could increase
to moderate to briefly fresh tonight through Sat night as low 
pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. 
Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over
Mexico could reduce visibilities over the Mexico offshore waters
through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the entire
Central America offshore waters and Colombia, due in part to 
converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon 
trough. Moderate SW winds are evident south of 09N, with light 
and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft 
primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural 
fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far
south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along
the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce 
visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Fri. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to 
fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist 
south of 10N through Mon night, with light to gentle breezes 
north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by 
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over 
portions of the Central America offshore waters through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 
12N108W. Fresh to strong SW winds near the low are converging 
into the monsoon trough between 106W and 110W. Combined seas in 
this area are 7 to 8 ft. The convergent SW winds are also 
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 150 to 
200 nm of the low, from 09N to 15N between 105W and 111W. 

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1035 mb high pressure centered 
near 37N142W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds north of the ITCZ along 05N and west of 110W.
Scatterometer data indicated a small area of strong winds from
10N to 14N and W of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is evident 
north of 28N between 120W and 140W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft 
from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to
fresh SE winds are noted W of 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes 
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it 
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by 
Thu. Winds and seas will subside by tonight as a result along
with showers and thunderstorm activity weakening along the
monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through
Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly, 
including the large NW to N swell west of Baja California. This
will continue through early next week before the high pressure
strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the 
remainder of the area.

$$
AReinhart