AXPZ20 KNHC 030336
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move
across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Fri. Strong high
pressure in its wake will build southward along the Sierra Madre
mountains of Mexico leading to a significant tightening of the
pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec north of 15N are currently strong, but will rapidly
increase to gale-force late tonight, then strong gale-force
during the day Fri, and then storm-force Fri evening into the
early overnight hours. Winds will diminish back to strong gale-
force by late Fri night into early Sat, then diminish below gale-
force early Sun, and eventually moderate or weaker by Tue. Very
large seas will build with these gale to storm-force winds,
peaking around 18-20 ft Fri night into early Sat. Seas will
subside to less than 8 ft by Mon night. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10N75W to 05.5N90W.
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N90W to 02N105W to 06N120W to beyond
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
10N between 121W and 132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong
northerly winds currently prevail across the immediate Gulf
waters north of 15N, where seas are to 7 ft and building.
High pressure located southwest of the California Channel Islands
extends a ridge southeastward across the offshore waters of
Mexico to 100W. Fresh N-NW winds are over the Gulf of California
south of 28N to near Cabo Corrientes, spilling through Baja
California Sur gaps just northwest of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are
3-6 ft in the Gulf of California south of 27N and 1-3 ft in the
northern Gulf of California where winds are moderate or weaker.
NE to E winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the Baja
California offshore waters. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of
110W, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds will
increase slightly to fresh to strong in the central and southern
Gulf of California tonight through early Fri afternoon due to a
tightening pressure gradient, then moderate to fresh there
through early Sat. A decaying cold front will approach Baja
California by the end of the weekend with high pressure building
behind it which will spread fresh to strong NW-N winds offshore
Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward Sun night through
Mon night. Similar winds will spread south through the Gulf of
California. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, the NW swell will decay
through the end of the week. A new set of larger NW swell will
arrive offshore Baja California with the fresh to strong winds.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua including the
Gulf of Papagayo area, and extend northward to the Gulf of
Fonseca. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail across these waters. Moderate to
fresh N-NE winds are from the Gulf of Panama south-
southwestward, including near the Azuero Peninsula along with 4-7
ft seas. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere, along with
4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail into early next week, near gale-
force at times, along with periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh
swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force
gap wind event is expected to begin to propagate through the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Fri evening through
Sun. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama
mainly at night through Sat night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front has begun to slow its forward progress across the
northwest waters, and now extends from 30N129W to 24N140W. Fresh
to strong S-SW winds are north of 28N within about 150-240 nm
ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front.
NW swell producing seas of 8-11 ft is north of 27N and west of
127W. High pressure southwest of the California Channel Islands
extends a ridge southwestward ahead of the cold front to near
24N131W. A surface trough is south of the ridge along the ITCZ,
south of 12N along 126W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
possible within about 240 nm northwest of the trough. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 13N and
west of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds across the
remainder of the open waters. Seas of 7-11 ft cover the waters
north of the ITCZ to about 21N and west of 110W due to a
combination of the winds related to the trough and background NW
swell. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the
remainder of the waters.
For the forecast, the trough along the ITCZ will relatively
quickly move westward, reaching 140W Sat night. Associated winds
ahead of the trough will be fresh, occasionally and locally
strong. Seas of 8-10 ft aided by NW swell will accompany the
trough. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds extending from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event will extend well southwest by Fri
evening and reach to 110W by Sat. The cold front in the
northwest waters will weaken and eventually stall by early Sat,
while a new cold front pushes southeast of 30N140W by then. The
boundaries will merge by Sat afternoon and then push toward Baja
California through the weekend. Strong high pressure will build
in the wake of the boundaries with fresh to strong trades
covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun night, and
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then.
Similar conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell
of 8 ft or greater associated with the boundaries will mainly be
across the northern waters through Fri night, then push and
expand across most of the waters west of 110W, aided by the fresh
to strong trades.