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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



948 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell in NW waters: A broad 1009 mb low pressure 
system located near 29N131W is producing a large area of 12 to 
15 ft seas. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured 12 ft seas
and greater north of 18N and west of 129W. Latest satellite-
derived wind data depict fresh to strong winds north of 22N and
west of 123W. The 12 ft seas will spread as far south as 17N and
as far east as 127W by early this morning. As the low weakens 
and moves NE, the winds will diminish to moderate speeds and seas
subside below 12 ft Tue night into early Wed.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 01N97W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 01N97W to 03N117W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 01N to 07N and between 105W 
and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient across the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to
diminish as the ridge to the north propagates eastward over the
western Atlantic. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-7
ft are present in the Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, a weak high
pressure system centered west of Baja California maintains light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the remainder of 
the Mexican offshore waters and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish early this morning as the ridge 
continues to slide eastward. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore 
waters, winds should remain mostly moderate or weaker through 
Mon. Winds in the northern Gulf of California are forecast to 
increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight and persist through 
Tue. Increasing NW to N swell may impact the waters offshore 
Baja California Norte by early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong
easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas in
these waters are 6-8 ft, building to 9 ft in the next 6 hours.
The moderate pressure gradient also supports fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Panama and
downstream to 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, ridging north of the area will support pulsing
strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and early 
mornings over the next several days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to 7-9 ft during the strongest
winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh
to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next few 
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on the significant swell in the NW waters.

Aside from the broad low pressure system discussed in the Special
features section, the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific
continues under the influence of a weak ridge positioned west of
Baja California. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 17N. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will 
continue to weaken as it moves northeastward, moving north of 
the area later today. Fresh to strong winds will continue Mon 
and Tue north of 25N. The seas in the NW part of the area will 
mostly subside below 12 ft by tonight, but a large area of 8 to 
11 ft seas will continue through Tue night west of 120N and north
of 05N. The seas will gradually subside Wed into Thu. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds will be affecting the eastern waters through 
early this week. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist into Tue. 
Farther west, winds will increase to fresh NE from the ITCZ to 
17N and west of 130W tonight into Wed with seas to 11 ft in NW to
N swell.

$$
Delgado