000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142100
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds are funneling 
through the Chivela Pass and supporting gale-force NNE winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gales will continue through this 
evening, with seas peaking to 10 ft. Gales will likely resume 
again Wed night as strong high pressure builds over Texas just N 
of a surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the 
Tehuantepec region during this period will peak at 13 ft, mainly 
on Thu night. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force by 
early Fri.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N109W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N109W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 08N between 91W and 95W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak pressure gradient in the region continues to support 
moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas in NW swell along 
the Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters N of 24N. Light to gentle 
NE winds prevail elsewhere. High pressure over the Great Basin 
of the United States is supporting fresh to strong northerly 
winds in the Gulf of California, with seas to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region will continue through this evening, with seas 
peaking to 10 ft. Gales will likely resume again Wed night as 
strong high pressure builds over Texas just N of a surface trough
over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the Tehuantepec region 
during this period will peak at 13 ft, mainly on Thu night. Winds
will quickly diminish below gale-force by early Fri. Fresh to 
strong winds in the Gulf of California will continue through 
tonight, gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed 
night, and then prevail mainly over the southern and entrance of 
the Gulf through Sat night. Gentle to moderate NE winds are 
forecast to develop across Baja California Sur Wed morning  
reaching Baja Norte offshores by the weekend. Light to gentle 
winds are expected elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas to 8 ft are 
ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with
this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in NW swell. In the
Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE and 
seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between Ecuador and 
The Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo will continue through Sat, likely increasing to near 
gale-force on Wed morning as high pressure ridging builds over 
the Caribbean. Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap wind 
event will continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Pulsing fresh N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds on 
Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. Otherwise, 
light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and The Galapagos
Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 
To the west of the Baja California offshore waters, a 1020 mb low
is analyzed near 28N128W with surface trough from 30N128W to the
low to 22N125W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 11 ft are
noted with the low/trough. N of 20N and W of 123W, fresh winds 
and seas are 8 to 11 ft in northerly swell, along with.
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. 

For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja
California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then 
surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the 
weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will 
gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a 
surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 
115W by the end of the week and then propagate westward 
enhancing winds to fresh to locally strong speeds, and building 
seas to 10 ft through Sat night.

$$
ERA