000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132059
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across
the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
quickly reach gale-force speeds by this evening across the 
Tehuantepec region as the pressure gradient intensifies across 
the area. These conditions will continue through Tue night. Rough
seas will prevail with the strongest winds. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N102W to 07N109W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to beyond 07N140W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
refer to the Special Features section above for details.

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. A weak pressure gradient in the area supports light 
to gentle winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas along the 
Baja offshores are moderate except N of Punta Eugenia where seas 
to 8 ft in NW swell continue to gradually subside. Along the Gulf
of California, a tight pressure gradient is leading to moderate 
to fresh NW winds and seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the SW 
Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, outside of the gulf of Tehuantepec, the ridge 
will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate winds. Long period NW 
swell generating rough seas to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia will 
subside tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds with building 
seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in the Gulf of California tonight 
through early Wed as high pressure establishes over the Great 
Basin of the United States. 

Looking ahead, the next round of gale force winds in the
Tehuantepec region is expected by Thu night, as a cold front is 
expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico enhancing the 
pressure gradient across the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing in
the Gulf of Papagayo as air funnels through the Cordillera 
Mountains and over Lake Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds and moderate seas to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama while 
southerly gentle to moderate winds and seas to 5 ft are across 
the offshore waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands. 
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo will reach fresh to strong speeds this afternoon 
and continue through Fri night, potentially increasing to near 
gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the Caribbean.
Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event. Moderate 
easterly winds from Papagayo will propagate across the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week. 
Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will occur in the 
Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of 
the offshore forecast waters through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1036 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. 
Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 
moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring N of 10N W of 125W.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NE long period swell are associated with 
these winds. In addition, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 
noted N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 135W, with seas to 9 
ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ while light to gentle winds are to the south.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis
and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. Northerly 
swell will continue to affect the subtropical waters with seas to
11 ft through at least midweek. A surface trough will intensify 
W of Baja California Norte tonight while moving westward through
mid-week. The pressure gradient between the trough and high 
pressure to the N will support fresh to strong winds on either 
side of the trough axis on Tue. 

$$
ERA