021 
AXPZ20 KNHC 170310
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N90W to 1009 mb low
pressure situated near 10N104W to 07N118W. The ITCZ continues 
from 07N118W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 84W and 108W.
Similar convective activity is also seen along the coast of
Colombia and regional waters S of 06N, and along parts of the
coast of Costa Rica. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
offshore waters of Baja California. In the Gulf of California, 
gentle to moderate SE to S winds are noted while light to gentle
winds prevail across the central and south parts of the Gulf with
seas of 1 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds are also observed across
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 5
ft in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW
to N winds and moderate seas through the upcoming weekend. In the
Gulf of California, expect gentle to locally moderate southerly
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft, with the exception of 3 to 5 ft 
near the entrance to the Gulf. These marine conditions will 
persist through Sun. Light to gentle winds are expected across 
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters through Sun with 
moderate seas in long period SW swell.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several
hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico during the next day
or two. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while 
the system moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining 
south of the coast of Mexico. 

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing an area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of 
this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves 
little. By this weekend, the low is forecast to merge with another 
system to its east.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough
along with moderate seas in long period SW swell. N of the monsoon
trough, winds are light to gentle and seas are also moderate in 
SW swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 4 to 6 
ft through the remainder of the week, building to 6 to 8 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 10N and W of 110W with a 1019 mb 
high pressure center located near 27N126W. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of moderate trade 
winds from 05N to 14N W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 5 
to 7 ft range. Mainly light and variable winds dominate the 
waters N of 20N W of 120W under the influence of the 
aforementioned high pressure center. The low pressure along the 
monsoon trough located near 10N104W is generating fresh to strong
S to SW winds with seas of 8 to 10 ft from 06N to 09N between 
101W and 106W based on scatterometer and altimeter data. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the waters
N of 10N W of 110W through the upcoming weekend with moderate to
locally fresh trades and moderate seas along the southern periphery
of its associated ridge. Northerly swell will build seas to 8 ft
across the far NW corner of the forecast region Fri and Fri night.

$$
GR