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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130329
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, have 
changed little in organization since yesterday. A small increase
in the organization of the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity would result in the formation of a short-lived tropical
depression, likely tonight or on Saturday, while the system 
moves WNW to NW at about 9 kt. By Sunday, upper-level winds are 
forecast to strengthen over the system, and further development 
is not expected. This system has a high chance of tropical 
development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N with axis near 100W, moving
west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with
this wave are across the S and SW offshore waters, and from 05N
to 09N between 96W and 106W. 

A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 111W, moving
west at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low has detached from the wave
and is located just east of it near 16N108W, which is described 
in more detail in the Special Features section above. Numerous
moderate convection is from 15N to 20N between 108W and 113W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 13N
between 107W and 113W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 16N109W to
11N117W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
04N to 14N and E of 94W, and from 08N to 14N between 113W and 
128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low 
pressure located a few hundred nautical miles WSW of Manzanillo,
Mexico, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.

Moderate NW winds are across the Baja California peninsula
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 6 ft in NW
swell. Moderate to fresh winds are in Jalisco and Colima offshore
waters associated with the low in the Special Features section.
Seas are currently in the 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds
are elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft range in SW swell, except
for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, regardless of development of the area of low 
pressure in the Special Features, showers and tstms will continue
across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the weekend.
The low is forecast to reach the Baja California Sur offshore
waters S of 20N by Sat morning with winds reaching near gale
force speeds. Seas are estimated to build to 8 ft during that
period. Winds and seas associated with the low are forecast to
diminish by late Sun afternoon as the low moves near 19N113W. 
Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue in the Baja California
offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon night, then diminish
to light to gentle winds for the remainder forecast period.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America
offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate
S to SW winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with 5-6
ft seas in SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the
offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through
the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase the seas in 
this region Sun night and will continue to spread northward 
towards the Central America offshore waters through the week.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will prevail across 
the Central America offshore waters through the middle of the
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
a low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a 
tropical depression tonight or Sat. Regardless of development, 
strong to near gale force winds are possible just SW of the Baja
California Sur offshore waters Sat and Sun. 

The persistent remnant low of Howard is centered near 23N128W at
1014 mb. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft in the NW quadrant of
the low. Associated winds are around 15-20 kt. This low is 
expected to dissipate by Sat morning.

Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of 
the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate NE to E winds are N 
of 20N and W of 131W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon
trough and 20N W of 130W where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle 
winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon between 110W and 125W. 
Moderate S to SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with 
seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no
major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next 
week.

$$
Ramos