AXPZ20 KNHC 080834
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
834 UTC Sat Aug 8 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An area of low pressure is expected to form tonight or Saturday
south of Mexico in association with a tropical wave presently
near 99W/100W south of Mexico near the Guerrero/Oaxaca border.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in the next 2-3 days while the system moves generally west-
northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two
days, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next five days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.
A tropical wave axis is near 99W/100W, N of 03N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N
between 95W and 100W. This wave will be closely monitored the
next several days as it is a potential precursor for tropical
cyclone development. Please see special features section above
for more information.
...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...
A tropical wave axis is near 138W south of 18N, moving westward
at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident near the
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends westward from 08N78W across Panama
and Costa Rica to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N98W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 08N to 16N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 120W and 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southward and westward to near 98W in association to a tropical
wave and developing low pressure. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of
Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high
pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle
to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward
to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of
Baja California Sur and elsewhere off the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next
week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next
several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please see the special features section above for more on
tropical cyclone potential over the waters off SW Mexico. Expect
increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters
between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta tonight into early next week
in association with this system before impacting the
Revillagigedo Islands through Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range.
The gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the
monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh
winds will occasionally pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region
through the middle of next week, mainly at night. Long- period
southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands will propagate
northward through this weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section above for more
information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation
offshore of southwestern Mexico.
The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the
monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Little change in marine
conditions is expected in this region over the next several days.
Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across
the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell crossing
the equator will continue to propagate northward through this
weekend. An area of freshening monsoon flow is expected between
100W and 115W, which combined with southerly swell will build
seas to 8 ft.