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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 041541

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
10N95W to 1010 mb low pres located near 08N121W to a second 1011
mb low pres situated near 07N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N to 08N E of 
90 to the coast of Colombia, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 
110W, and from 05N to 10N between 116W and 128W.


A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception 
of moderate to fresh NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell across this area. 
In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable with seas
in the 1 to 2 ft range, expect 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to 
the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the 
remainder of Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft 
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to control the weather 
pattern across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula 
through at least Mon with little change in winds and seas. As a 
result, expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia. A developing low pressure over the northern Gulf 
of California will support fresh to locally strong S to SW winds 
at night Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh winds are expected near 
Cabo San Lucas at night through the forecast period. Moderate NW 
winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to 
light to gentle speeds on Mon.


Light to gentle SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen 
across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and seas in the 6 to 8 ft in SW swell 
are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to
gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters of Colombia and 
in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3 to 5 ft offshore the W
coast of Colombia, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds will 
prevail through mid-week. Cross equatorial SW swell, with seas of
8 to 9 ft, will continue to propagate across the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today, reaching the offshore
waters of W Panama and Costa Rica by tonight with seas building
to 8 ft. This swell event will gradually subside Mon night into 


High pressure well N of the area, anchored by a 1031 mb high 
located near 44N140W, extends a ridge across the forecast waters
N of 15N W of 110W generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow. Winds increase some to moderate to fresh speeds on the
northern semicircle of the aforementioned low pressure centers 
located along the monsoon. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across 
the open waters in mixed swell with the exception of 7 to 9 ft S
of 06N between 93W and 117W due to S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through mid-
week while the low pressure centers along the monsoon trough  
will drift westward. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern
Hemisphere will continue to propagate across most of the waters 
S of 10N between 92W and 110W by tonight. Seas generated by 
strong northerly winds just W of the State of California will 
push S of 30N Mon through Tue, with seas 8 to 10 ft affecting 
roughly the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W.