AXPZ20 KNHC 011540
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected
to sweep across the Gulf of Mexico on Fri. A robust ridge will
build behind the frontal boundary over the southern United States
and northern Mexico. Tightening pressure gradient will support a
strong gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
This event is forecast to last from early Fri to early Sun,
reaching peak winds near 45 kt Fri night into early Sat. Winds to
storm force are possible during this time. Seas will build
quickly to near 20 ft Fri night into early Sat. Conditions will
improve on Sun with winds diminishing below gale force late Sat
night and seas decreasing below 8 ft by late Mon.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 03N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N99W to 06N113W and
continues from 06N120W to 06N130W and beyond 07N140W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 13N116W to 05N119W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 15N and between 110W and 120W.
Similar convection is occurring from 03N and 08N and west of
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The surface trough extending from northern Mexico to the eastern
Pacific waters has dissipated and a 1023 mb high pressure system
well west of Baja California dominates the region. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California,
except for occasionally fresh speeds occurring in the southern
portion of the basin. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters
of Baja California, along with seas of 5-8 ft. The highest seas
are present in the western offshore waters. Fresh to occasionally
pulsing strong northerly winds are evident in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, extending south to 13N. Seas in the area described
are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent elsewhere in the basin.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to strong N winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec nightly through early Thu, then diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds Thu afternoon. However, a strong gale
gap wind event is forecast to begin Fri morning in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, peaking near 45 kt Fri night into early Sat. Winds
to storm speeds are possible during this time. Seas are expected
to build quickly to near 20 ft late Fri into Sat. Conditions
begin to slowly improve on Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue across the Gulf of
Papagayo and Nicaraguan offshore waters region, extending
westward to 91W. Seas are near 8 ft in these waters. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds are found in the Gulf of Panama,
extending south to 04N. Seas of 4-7 ft in the waters described.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the
For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail into early next week. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds will pulse nightly through Thu
morning. Large swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale force gap-wind event is expected to begin to
propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters
starting Fri night and begin to subside on Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1023 mb high pressure system is centered near 32N127W and
extends weakly southward into the waters of the tropical eastern
Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to locally strong
easterly trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 115W.
Seas in these waters are 8-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, the northerly swell over the northern waters
producing seas to 10 ft is forecast to continue southward over
the next few days while slowly subsiding. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds will continue over the next few days as the
pressure gradient tightens, and as the trough currently along a
position from near 13N116W to 05N119W tracks westward. The
aforementioned subtropical ridge will weaken, and slide east-
southeastward toward northern Baja California through early Thu
in response to a cold front that will be entering the far NW part
of the area late this afternoon or early in the evening. This
cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW
winds and seas of around 8-10 ft through early Thu night as it
reaches from near 30N131W to 26N136W and to 25N140W by that time.