137 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290321
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 08N120W to
09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 1009 mb low pressure
near 09N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active within 60 nm of the coast from northwest
Nicaragua to central Guatemala.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 33N137W extends 
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier 
scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NW-N 
winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the 
strongest winds occurring south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these 
waters are 4-6 ft.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulfs of
Tehuantepec and California, light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas prevail. Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW 
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural 
fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may 
decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support
moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja 
California into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy 
conditions may persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and Central America. Looking ahead, expect building seas 
with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja 
California from late Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9 
or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly
winds are noted on a recent scatterometer satellite pass south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. 

Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough reaching 
from Cuba to Central America is producing scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms affecting the nearshore and offshore 
waters of Central America from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Hazy 
conditions continue off the Central American coast due to 
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. 
Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are
forecast across the Papagayo region through Friday. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the 
monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are 
expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in 
the 4-6 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of 
SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Hazy skies from 
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central 
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central 
America offshore waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1032 mb subtropical ridge located north of the area continues
to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The 
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds south of 22N and west of 120W. Seas in 
these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and 
seas of 5-6 ft are noted from 19N to 26N and east of 120W. 
Stronger winds and higher seas may be present near the 
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region 
will support an increased area of fresh to locally strong trade 
winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to 
build to 10 ft over the next few days. Meanwhile, northerly 
swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed
and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8-10 ft in a combination of 
NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

$$
Christensen