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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 051041

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1035 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in 
Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in
the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, 
through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 13 ft 
during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is forecast to 
develop tonight off NE Florida near the tail-end of a weakening 
stationary front currently in the Bahamas. The low pressure is 
forecast to move NE into the NW Atlantic and strengthen, 
producing gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of 29N. 
The old frontal boundary is generating an area of rough seas 
reaching heights of 13 ft in N swell N of 25N. Rough to very 
rough seas will persist in the western Atlantic through Mon, 
with a new area of swell entering the region Mon night into Tue. 


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 02N22W. The ITCZ 
begins at 02N22W and continues to 01S43W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted south of 07N and E of 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and west of


High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining a fairly
dry weather pattern across the basin. A weak surface trough is
along 87W, extending from 22N to 28N. Fresh easterly winds are
observed over the eastern Gulf waters, east of the surface trough.
Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring
in the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Light to locally moderate 
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere, with the 
highest seas in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the fresh E winds in the eastern Gulf will 
diminish this morning as high pressure builds into the Gulf. As 
the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong SE to S 
return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the strongest 
winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front 
will enter the NW Gulf Wed with strong N winds possible behind it 
and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf late
Wed into early Thu.


Please read the Special Features section above for more details 
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea
supports fresh to near gale-force easterly winds in the central 
Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia,
Gulf of Venezuela and off southern Hispaniola. Seas in these
waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW
Colombia. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found in the
eastern Caribbean. Fresh easterly winds winds and seas of 2-4 ft
are prevalent in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 3-7 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, modest to strong pressure gradient will continue
across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean 
Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas
will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Strong 
easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and 
occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge
will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into


Please read the Special Features section above for details on 
the Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 25N64W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to 24N81W. No deep convection is noted
near this frontal boundary. Scatterometer satellite data from
a few hours ago showed strong to near gale force NE winds north 
of the front from 25N to 29N between 70W and 78W, including over 
the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere north of the front and west of 
55W, fresh to strong NE winds were noted, while east of 55W, winds
shift from the NW. Seas are 8-13 ft behind the frontal boundary,
with the highest seas east of the Bahamas. 

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 39N45W to 20N50W and
there is no deep convection near the trough axis. A broad
subtropical ridge over the NE Atlantic dominates the remainder of
the basin. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are observed south
of 22N due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft,
with the highest seas occurring near 15N33W and confirmed by a
recent altimeter satellite pass. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail in the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
in the SW Atlantic is forecast to weaken today and a new low 
pressure area to develop off NE Florida by tonight. The low 
pressure will move NE into NW Atlantic and strengthen, with gale- 
force winds developing late tonight into early Mon morning N of 
29N and between 65W and 75W. Winds will diminish below gale force 
by Mon afternoon.