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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1035 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the region and lower pressures in 
Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in 
the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, 
through late this week. Seas are forecast to peak near 13 ft 
during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening 1009 mb low pressure near
31N75W is moving quickly to the northeast into the NW Atlantic. A
forming cold front extends from the low center to 26N77W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted ahead of the frontal boundary to 66W and north of 25N. Gale-
force winds are found N of 29N and between 74W and 77W and will 
spread eastward during the morning hours to 65W. Strong to near 
gale-force winds are present N of 27N and W of 60W. Seas are 
peaking near 14 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force by this 
afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

Atlantic Significant Swell: The stationary front in the SW
Atlantic has dissipated. However, large and long-period swell is 
analyzed between 45W and 63W and N of 25N, continuing north of 
the discussion area. Swell direction is N to NW, with a period of 
12-16 seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh, locally strong NE 
winds are found in the area mentioned. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N14W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ stretches
from 05N19W to 01S30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection us
noted within 120 nm of both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure system positioned near 29N92W dominates 
the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining generally tranquil weather 
conditions. Light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas 
of 2-4 ft prevail north of 21N. Moderate to occasionally fresh NE 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge over the northern Gulf
of Mexico will move eastward over the next few days. Southerly 
return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight into 
early Tue. Strong winds will also develop off NW Cuba and NW 
Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front will
enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale N winds 
possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front reaches 
the central Gulf early Thu. A stronger cold front will enter the 
Gulf late Thu into Fri with possible gale-force winds in the SW 
Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details 
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A strong high-pressure system centered north of the Caribbean 
Sea supports fresh to strong trades across the eastern, central, 
and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas are 6-9 ft across 
these regions, except for slightly higher seas to 10 ft off NW 
Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 ft are 
across the NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
maintain a strong pressure gradient across the central Caribbean 
Sea through the week. Strong easterly winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off Colombia 
nightly into late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft during 
the strongest winds. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off 
southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean 
through the forecast period, and NW Caribbean Tue night into late 
this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on 
the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the
Central and Western Atlantic.

Outside of the low pressure system in the Special Features
section, a stationary front extends from 31N41W to 29N53W. No deep
convection is noted near this frontal boundary. The tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a strong 1039 mb high pressure system
near 39N45W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to 
strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin. Seas are 8-15 
ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring near 31N47W. 
The exception is light to moderate winds found N of 28N and 
between 30W and 45W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strengthening 1009 mb low 
pressure is near 31N75W and a forming cold front extends from the
low center to 26N77W. Gale-force winds are present N 29N and 
between 74W and 77W. Seas are peaking near 14 ft. The low 
pressure will move quickly northeastward into the NW Atlantic. 
Gale-force winds will remain N of 29N and spread eastward to 65W 
Mon morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force Mon afternoon 
and below strong speeds by Wed. The cold front will sweep across 
the SW Atlantic over the next couple of days, reaching near 27N55W
to 23N80W by Wed morning. Seas behind the front will build to 
near 18 ft by early Wed, diminishing late in the week.

$$
DELGADO