000
AXNT20 KNHC 282143
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N13W and continues
southwestward to 02N20W and to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 
01N25W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 02N to 07N between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 00N to 02N between 20W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the Carolinas to Bermuda. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter satellite data along with buoy
observations show this pattern is supporting fresh to strong SE 
winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico, with 6 to 9 ft combined
seas.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken over the 
next few days, loosening the pressure gradient which will diminish
winds and decrease seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and 
south- central Gulf each evening through the forecast period. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The aforementioned strong ridge in the NW Atlantic is also
sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the lee of
Cuba, Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring 
in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 
ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean Sea and remaining 
waters in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic 
will gradually weaken over the next few days. As a result, the 
fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the 
lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will 
diminish early this week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh 
easterly winds will prevail. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 
ft through the passages in the NE Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N46W to the Windward Passage. Fresh 
to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found over much of the 
SW North Atlantic behind the front. Fresh to strong SE winds and 
seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 27N east of the front to 
50W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft combined seas
are noted elsewhere west of 50W. Farther east, broad ridging is
supporting moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas over the
eastern Atlantic south of 31N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken over the
far southeastern waters through Mon night. Fresh to strong N-NE 
winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front to 60W with seas to 
12 ft. Also, fresh to locally strong winds will cover the waters S
of 22N and W of 70W through Mon. More tranquil marine conditions 
are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the
NW waters. 

$$
Christensen