AXNT20 KNHC 220546
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
Strong high pressure ridging building across the western Gulf
to the west of a stationary front is leading to gales offshore
Veracruz, Mexico and the Bay of Campeche with seas of 12 to 16
ft. Very rough seas will continue in the southwestern Gulf,
reaching up to 18 ft offshore Veracruz tonight. The stationary
boundary will transition to a cold front tonight and move SE of
the area on Sat. Winds are expected to diminish below gale
tonight, however fresh to strong N to NE winds will gradually
diminish through Sat night.
...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to minimal gale force offshore Colombia into Sat night. Sea
heights will continue to range from 8 to 10 ft. As the ridge
shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will
weaken, thus leading to fresh to strong winds in the south-central
basin through the middle of next week.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends to Liberia adjacent waters near 06N12W
where the ITCZ continues to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between
33W and 40W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico.
A stationary boundary stretches from Pine Island, Florida SW to
25N90W and ends in the Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. Overcast
skies cover the majority of the basin, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly south of 25N. A recent satellite
scatterometer pass found fresh to strong NE winds behind the
front, except in the extreme SW Gulf where winds continue to be near
gale force and sea heights are 12 to 16 ft. Gentle winds are
ahead of the front with 3 to 5 ft seas.
For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds occurring
behind the front will continue into Sat before diminishing as the
front transitions to a cold front and moves SE of the area. Seas
in excess of 12 ft will also decay into the weekend. High pressure
will then traverse the northern Gulf into early next week, with
another cold front moving off Texas Mon night. Fresh to strong S
flow will precede this front.
The tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong E
winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Near gale force winds are offshore Colombia with seas to 9 ft. Generally
moderate trades are elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas. Dry air
subsidence from aloft continues to support fair weather conditions
over most of the basin.
For the forecast, the surface pressure gradient between W
Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and
Panama will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale
force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through Sat
night, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere in the south-central
Caribbean through the weekend. Generally moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the far NW
Caribbean late Sat night, then stall Sun from Cuba to Honduras.
This front will dissipate Mon.
As of 0300 UTC, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N75W
and extends to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong N
winds accompany the front with building seas. Showers and some
strong thunderstorms will also continue to develop along the
boundary, which will move E through the weekend and into early
next week. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through
Tue as another cold front move across the waters NE of northern
Florida Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front.
The remainder SW N Atlantic and central subtropical Atlantic
continue under the influence of high pressure ridging, which is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds to the north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands, and fresh to strong winds to the
north of Hispaniola with 4 to 6 ft seas. Over the NE subtropical
waters, a broad area of low pressure is centered near 29N24W. A
broad area of fresh to locally strong NE winds is between the low
and the ridge in the region N of 20N between 35W and 55W with 9 to
12 ft seas. Gentle to moderate flow persists elsewhere.