000
AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front is extending 
from 31N76W SW to western Cuba. Gale-force winds ahead of a cold 
front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will 
continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to 
extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong 
southerly winds and rough seas will continue ahead of the front 
through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of 
Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back 
towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong 
high pressure building north of the area will lead to the 
development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and 
building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore 
waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed 
through Fri night. There is a high chance for the re-development 
of gales or gust to gale force winds over a great portion of the 
region with the retreat of the front. 

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure
gradient from high pressure extending a ridge over the central
Atlantic and a trough of low pressure between 48W and 50W will 
support strong NE winds just N of the trough. Twelve ft seas are 
seen north of 23N between 25W and 54W. Seas will build to 15 ft 
late tonight/early Tue with the area of 12 ft seas expanding to 
the regional waters of Puerto Rico and eastward to 35W through 
Wed morning. Rough seas will continue to affect this region 
through Thu before subsiding to 8-10 ft Thu night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea coast near 11N15W to 
09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 03N44W. No significant 
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong pressure gradient between a cold front that extends 
from western Cuba to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula and high 
pressure building behind it, is supporting fresh to strong NE 
winds in the E and SW Gulf. Rough seas in the 7 to 10 ft range 
cover these regions, being the highest seas in the SW Gulf. 
Mainly gentle winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the 
Gulf. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the E and 
SW Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by noon today. 
High pressure building north of the area will lead to fresh to 
near gale force winds across the E and NW Gulf Tue evening 
through Thu with potential gale force winds developing over the 
north-central and NE basin Fri and Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered
showers and tstms over the NW Caribbean ahead of an approaching 
cold front. Currently, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE 
over this region, with seas 6 to 8 ft. In the E Caribbean, 
easterly winds are also moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to 
7 ft range. Strong high pressure N of the area, continue to 
support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin with 8 
to 11 ft seas.  

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will 
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and 
portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near 
gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these 
regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia 
adjacent waters. A cold front over the NW Caribbean is followed 
by moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas. These winds 
will reach strong speeds in the NW Caribbean tonight through Wed 
morning as the front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of 
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high 
pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE 
winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through early Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas and a significant swell 
event over the central Atlantic.

A strong cold front extending from 31N76W SW to western Cuba. 
Gale-force winds ahead of a cold front over the offshore waters 
N of 27N and W of 67W while seas range between 8 and 13 ft. 
Additionally, a line of numerous moderate to strong convection is 
depicted ahead of the cold front north of the western Bahamas. A 
stationary front extends from 31N29W to 23N45W. Surface ridging 
covers the subtropical waters between the fronts, which is 
supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds between both frontal 
boundaries. Surface ridging covers the E subtropical Atlantic 
waters, however a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to 
moderate NE wind over that region where seas are in the 5 to 7 
ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds ahead of a cold 
front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will 
continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to 
extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong 
southerly winds and rough seas will continue ahead of the front 
through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of 
Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back 
towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong 
high pressure building north of the area will lead to the 
development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and 
building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore 
waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed 
through Fri night.

$$
KRV