396 
AXNT20 KNHC 100525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 15N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N24W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted along the ITCZ between 33W-47W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh 
winds are noted across the basin ahead of an approaching cold 
front currently over Texas. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing 
north of the Yucatan. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf with 
4 to 6 ft in the central and western Gulf. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridging will begin to 
shift southward tonight in response to a cold front that will be 
approaching the far NW Gulf tonight into early on Fri. Ahead of 
the front, moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the area, 
except for gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over 
the eastern Gulf. The cold front will move southeastward across 
the basin, reaching from near southeastern Louisiana to South 
Texas by Fri afternoon, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the NE 
Mexico and South Texas border by early Sat, then stall from the 
Straits of Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken 
with its remnants lifting back north as a warm front through Tue. 
Moderate to fresh northeast winds will follow the front into Sat 
evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico 
continues across most of the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is centered NE of the Caribbean. This is 
giving way to scattered showers across the islands of Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, N of 16N and E of 72W. 
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is off the coasts of 
Colombia and Panama along the monsoon trough, S of 12N. 

Fresh to strong winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras with 
seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of
the NW basin with 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are 
noted in the SE basin off the NE Venezuela coast. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the Caribbean. Seas range 
3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will slowly shift 
eastward through the weekend. The associated gradient will support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and southeastern
Caribbean through the weekend. Winds may increase some early next
week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong east winds will continue to pulse 
at night across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Looking ahead, 
expect fresh to strong southeast winds over the northwestern and 
south-central Caribbean off Colombia early next week, between the 
high pressure over the western Atlantic and lowering pressure 
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and over Colombia. These 
winds may pulse to near-gale over the Gulf of Honduras by Tue 
night. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western, scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving 
off the NE Florida coast N of 29N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
over waters N of 26N and W of 60W. Surface ridging dominates the 
rest of the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high pressure near 
29N61W. Light to gentle winds are noted under the influence of 
the high from 22N to 31N between 45W and 75W. 

An upper level trough extends over the central Atlantic along 58W.
A pair of surface troughs are analyzed along 48W and 58W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted east of the surface troughs N of 18N
between 37W-53W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted E of 
55W to the coast of Africa. Seas range 5 to 7 ft across this 
area.

For the forecast, the ridge pressure will shift slowly eastward 
through Sat, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the 
northwest. Expect fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead 
of the front tonight through late Fri between the northern Bahamas
and Bermuda. The front is expected to move off the northeast 
Florida coast Fri night, then weaken as it moves east reaching 
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by late Sat night. Winds 
and seas will diminish into Mon as the dissipating front continues
to drift east of the area, and high pressure builds between the 
Carolinas and Bermuda in the wake of front. Looking ahead, 
southeast winds will increase and seas will build late Mon through
Tue night off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas, as the 
high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next weak front that is
expected to move across the southeastern United States.

$$
ERA