AXNT20 KNHC 190620
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 28.9N 90.9W at
19/0300 UTC or 52 nm SSE of Morgan City Louisiana moving N at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N to
30N between 83W and 90W. On the forecast track, the system should
moved inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then
move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states
through the weekend.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W from 13N southward, and
is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 09N between 30W and 38W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 20N southward, and
is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present over and near Hispaniola.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 18N southward, and
is stationary. Scattered showers are present in the vicinity of
the wave axis.
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues westward from 09N19W to 07N20W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N37W to 02N50W.
Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section, Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 15W and 21W and from 03N to 09N between 24W to 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.
The Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 28N91W.
A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered Moderate convection is noted south of 24N and along the
Yucatan Peninsula. Outside of the winds associated to PTC Three,
generally fresh SE winds are occurring over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, with gentle to moderate N winds over the western basin.
Seas across the Gulf are mainly in the 3-5 ft range, except 6 to 8
ft in the central Gulf.
For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move
inland to 30.4N 90.3W Sat morning, inland to 31.9N 88.5W Sat
evening, inland to 33.2N 85.9W Sun morning, inland to 34.1N 82.8W
Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 35.5N 79.3W Mon
morning, and dissipate Mon evening. The majority of strongest
winds and frequent squalls and tstms are expected to occur north
and east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three through early Sat
afternoon. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sat afternoon. High
pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of
Three Sat night into early next week.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from Colombia across
Panama to beyond Costa Rica. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon trough south of 11N
between 75W and 83W and along the coast of Nicaragua.
Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the central Caribbean.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6
ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong E
to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Wed night. A tropical wave currently located along 73W will
continue to move W across the Caribbean through Sun enhancing
shower and thunderstorm activity. Another tropical wave will reach
the Lesser Antilles by Sat night increasing the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms.
West of 58W, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to 31N75W. A
Surface trough is observed ahead of the boundary from 29N62W to
28N65W. Scattered moderate convection is present ahead of the
Front from 25N to 31N between 57W to 64W. Additional scattered
Showers are lingering north of the Bahamas between 66W to 78W.
High pressure ridge prevails over the central Atlantic, anchored
by 1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N41W. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the waters north of 24N, with moderate to
fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range
west of 75W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere north of 2N. South of 20N, seas
are in the 6-8 ft range.
For the forecast west of 65W, a trough will move eastward across
the northern forecast waters through tonight. A ridge will build
across the area on Sat and dominate the area the remainder of
the forecast period with gentle to moderate winds prevailing
through midweek. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night over Hispaniola adjacent waters through Wed night.