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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from northeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N 
between 19W and 24W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
found from 06N to 10N between 45W and 49W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and moving 
west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms 
are occurring over Belize and the southwestern Gulf of Honduras. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of the
Island of Youth from 16N to 20N between 82W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands
at 13N24W to 08N37W. Scattered moderated convection is present
near the trough from 10N to 12N between 25W and 31W, and farther
south from 02N to 07N between 24W and 37W, and also from 05N to
09N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 19W. An ITCZ 
continues from 08N37W to 08N49W. Other than convection associated
with the tropical wave, there is no significant convection near
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front across northern Florida is triggering 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida 
Panhandle. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the east-central Gulf is
providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas for the 
east-central, southeastern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate SE to WSW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident for the
northwestern, west-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to 
fresh ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the Bay of 
Campeche.

For the forecast, the high will drift ESE to the central Gulf 
before dissipating tonight. The stationary front near the Florida-
Alabama/Georgia border will linger through Thu, supporting 
scattered showers and tstms in the northeastern Gulf through Thu 
night and moderate SW to W winds through tonight. Otherwise, a 
tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to 
move across Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu 
night, and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low 
pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves NW over the southwestern Gulf 
through the weekend. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh 
winds are expected across the southwestern and west-central gulf 
Thu through Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores 
High through the Florida Straits, sustaining NE to ENE trade 
winds across the entire basin. Convergent trade winds are 
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just south 
of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Refer to the 
Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean 
Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen 
over the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Moderate to 
fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present for the central basin 
and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 
ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, active weather in the northwestern basin is 
expected to gradually shift westward with the tropical wave 
through Thu night. Surface ridging building north of the region 
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean 
tonight through Sat. A broad tropical wave will move across the 
Tropical Atlantic waters Thu night, across the eastern Caribbean 
Fri, and the central Caribbean Fri night and Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary/cold front extending east-northeastward from the
Florida-Georgia border is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the northern Florida coast and
southwest of Bermuda. A surface trough near 21N66W is causing
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms just north of Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft north of 23N between 55W and the Florida coast/Bahamas,
except moderate SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 27N between
65W and 75W to the south of the aforementioned front. Gentle to 
moderate NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted farther 
east, north of 14N between 25W and 55W; and also farther south 
from 11N to 23N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the 
Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft
are present north of 17N between the northwest African coast and
25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 8
ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging has begun to build 
across the waters north of the Greater Antilles and is expected 
to prevail through Mon night. A stalled frontal boundary near the 
NE Florida waters along 31N will linger across the region through 
Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 26N between Florida 
and 63W. Moderate SW winds ahead of the front and south of Bermuda 
will diminish on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
are forecast south of 25N Thu through Sun as a tropical wave move
across the eastern and central Caribbean. 

$$

Chan