000
AXNT20 KNHC 011009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is active S of 06N and E of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to 
moderate SE winds across the Gulf, except west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula where locally fresh NE winds are noted. 3 to 5 ft 
combined seas are noted across the basin. Light to moderate smoke 
from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is creating hazy 
conditions for much of the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to strong 
pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed night into the 
weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half
of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and 
to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by
a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds over much of the Caribbean basin. Fresh
to strong winds are pulsing in the offshore waters of southern 
Hispaniola, as verified by latest scatterometer data.
Scatterometer data also noted mainly gentle winds over the NW 
Caribbean. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and 
central basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the NW basin. 

For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide eastward and 
weaken some over the next few days, resulting in mainly gentle to 
moderate trade winds through the week and into the weekend. 
Northerly swell will support rough seas through the the NE 
Caribbean passages until this afternoon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1019 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast 
Florida near 30N68W. To the east, a cold front extends from 
31N49W to 28N64W. Another cold front extends from 32N36W to
26N40W. Scattered showers are noted along the fronts. A recent 
scatterometer satellite pass indicated that fresh winds prevail 
off the north coast of Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and across the 
Old Bahama Channel north of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and 
latest altimeter satellite data show combined seas of 8-10 ft are 
affecting the waters N of 28N and E of 60W. A scatterometer pass 
showed fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N between 45W and 50W, 
ahead of the weak cold front east of Bermuda. Moderate winds and 
seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, high pressure 
west of the Azores is supporting a large area of fresh to strong 
NE winds and 8 to 9 ft over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will continue over the waters S of 22N and W of 60W through today,
including in the approaches of the Windward Passage. The high 
pressure will move eastward while slowly weakening. A surface 
trough may develop just N of Hispaniola over the next 48 hours and
move east toward the waters just north of Puerto Rico by the end 
of the work week.

$$
ERA