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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 222351

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to gale force offshore Colombia through this evening. Sea 
heights in the Colombian Basin will continue to range from 8 to 
11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the 
pressure gradient will weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun, 
although strong winds will continue in the south-central basin 
through the middle of next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website, for more details. 


The ITCZ extends along the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N29W
to the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along and north of the ITCZ in the central Atlantic 
from 05N to 16N between 29W and 36W.


High pressure is building south through the western Gulf in the 
wake of a slow moving cold front that stretches from Marco Island,
Florida into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are observed behind the front with moderate to rough seas on
an abating trend. Winds remain gentle to moderate ahead of the front
in the SE Gulf, outside of thunderstorms. Isolated moderate convection
is noted along the front in the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along a pre-frontal trough in the Florida 
Straits and north of NW Cuba.

For the forecast, a cold front reaching from Marco Island, Florida
to Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico will slowly move across the southeast
Gulf and exit the basin tonight. Marine conditions will improve 
across the Gulf through Sun night as high pressure builds over 
the region. The next cold front, along with a possible associated
low pressure, is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast by Mon 
night. This system may bring higher winds and seas to portions of
the Gulf into the middle of next week as it crosses the basin, 
with winds reaching near-gale force over the north central Gulf 
Mon night and Tue.


Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
gale warning off the coast of Colombia. 

Outside of the Colombian Basin, a recent scatterometer satellite 
pass revealed moderate to fresh easterly trade winds throughout 
the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with 5-7 ft 
seas reported by buoys. Conditions are more favorable in the NW 
Caribbean with a gentle breeze south of 18N to the coast of
Honduras, slight seas and isolated weak convection is noted.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure 
in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong
to gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight, with fresh to 
strong winds elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean into early 
next week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean 
tonight, reach from Cuba to Belize Sun, then dissipate by Mon. 


A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from
31N71W to the coast of Florida near West Palm Beach. Behind the 
front, buoys are reporting strong northerly winds with 7-10 ft 
seas. Ahead of the front, generally moderate to fresh winds 
prevail with seas of 4-6 ft. A line of thunderstorms is observed 
roughly 90nm ahead of the front along a pre-frontal trough. 

In the central Atlantic, a large area of moderate N swell is 
abating. A pair of surface troughs are causing scattered moderate
convection from 15N to 25N between 39W and 45W. In the eastern
Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE 
through early next week, reaching from east of Bermuda through 
the Turks and Caicos Islands by Mon night. Behind the front, 
strong N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft can be expected through 
tonight, before the front weakens and conditions improve. The 
next cold front is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S. coast 
late Tue.