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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western 
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central 
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through much of 
the week. Seas will build to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds.
Marine conditions will continue to improve slightly during the 
day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N14W and 
extends southwestward to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W 
to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the 
monsoon trough from 02N to 08W between the west coast of Africa 
and 20W. Similar convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 32W 
and 48W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail. Seas of 5-7 ft are noted over the NW Gulf as well
as across the Straits of Florida. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the ridge dominating the Gulf waters will 
sustain fresh easterly winds across the northwestern Gulf and 
Strait of Florida until early this evening. A weak cold front will
approach the coast of Texas on Mon, and move into the NW Gulf on 
Tue where it will remain nearly stationary on Wed. A second push 
of cold air will allow the front to move across the Gulf region on
Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu 
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will 
follow the front. On Fri, winds could increase to gale force in 
the Veracruz area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. 
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, 
reaching near-gale force off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to 
fresh winds are found over the western Caribbean, with moderate
winds over the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range
over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and
3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the 
south- central Caribbean, reaching minimal gale force at night 
near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the 
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through midweek. 
Elsewhere moderate to fresh trades are expected.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N56W to the NW 
Bahamas. Broad troughing prevails across the central Atlantic, 
and high pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic. Fresh to strong
winds prevail across the western NW of the broad troughing, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere west of the trough. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of the broad trough, with gentle
to moderate winds east of the trough and N of 20N. Fresh to strong
winds are seen S of 20N and E of 40W, with light to gentle winds S
of 20N and W of 40W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
regions of strong winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will gradually dissipate on Mon. Strong high pressure over the 
western Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly winds and 
building seas across the waters S of 25N, including the Bahamas, 
Great Bahama Bank, the approach to the Windward Passage and the 
Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico through Mon morning. A weak cold 
front is forecast to move across the N waters Mon and Tue, 
reaching from 31N61W to 25N65W by Tue night. A second cold front 
is forecast to move off NE Florida by late Wed.

$$
AL