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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261032
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 05N45W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N 
to 13N between 29W and 44W. Isolated trade wind showers are from 
11N to 19N between 17W and 29W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends across the NW Gulf of Mexico 
from 30N91W to 26N98W. Isolated showers are on either side of 
the frontal boundary. An Atlantic ridge noses into the eastern 
Gulf. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of 
Mexico. 

The stationary front will drift northward today. A strong cold 
front will move into the NW Gulf on Sunday morning, with fresh 
to strong northerly winds spreading across the basin through 
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea, from 
Hispaniola westward. A mid-level trough covers Central America. 
The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W in northern Colombia to 
09N83W in southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident from 11N to 16N between 81W and 85W, and from 09N to 11N 
between 79W and 84W. 

High pressure north of the region will increase winds and seas 
in the central Caribbean today. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
will prevail across most of the area tonight through Sunday. A 
cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 28N56W. A cold front 
extends southward from the low to 20N57W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection associated with this low pressure 
system is noted from 20N to 32N between 48W and 55W. Broken to 
overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated showers are within 
700 nm east of the cold front, from 20N northward. High pressure 
centered near 37N31W prevails north of 20N, east of 45W. 

Fresh NE winds associated with high pressure across the western 
Atlantic will prevail east of the Bahamas today. Northerly swell 
will affect Atlantic waters and passages through Friday. A 
strong cold front will move east of Florida on Monday night.

$$
Mundell