Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/0900 UTC, is near 30.6N 
60.9W. EPSILON is moving toward the NW, or 320 degrees, 06 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 kt. Tropical
storm-force winds are within 270 nm of the center in the N 
semicircle, and within 120 nm to 200 nm of the center in the S 
semicircle. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 480 
nm of the center in the NW and SE quadrants, and within 540 nm to
660 nm of the center. The maximum sea heights are reaching 38 
feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm
of the center. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong is within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and 
within 460 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Please read the 
latest NHC Public Advisory, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the 
Forecast/Advisory, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered 
to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 200 nm to the 
east of the tropical wave, and within 275 nm to the west of the 
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical 
wave, from 09N 13N. Isolated moderate is from 16N to 20N between 
48W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal, 
along 14N, curving to 12N20W. The ITCZ is along 06N/08N between 
14W and 38W, and from 05N41W to 02N49W. Precipitation: scattered 
to numerous strong from 08N to 10N between 43W and 47W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the 
ITCZ between 24W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is 
elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is across Florida, shifting west. 
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and 
isolated to widely scattered moderate are from 80W westward.

Fresh easterly winds will persist in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
through Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of 
Mexico on Saturday, reach from central Florida to southern Texas 
on Saturday night, and then stall and dissipate on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 22N95W in the SW corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is along 
20N at the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, into the 
Caribbean Sea near 17N83W, and to 13N78W. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters, 
from 94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northern 
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and to the Yucatan Channel. 
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in 
clusters is within 430 nm to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea 
surface trough from Haiti westward. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is between 67W and 73W. Isolated moderate is 
from 11N northward to the trough from 78W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern 
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is in the waters from the monsoon 
trough southward between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate to 
strong in clusters is in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W 
and 78W, and from 08N to 10N between the Colombia/Venezuela 
border and 74W.

The surface trough in the western Caribbean Sea is producing 
widespread rain showers and thunderstorms to the north of 15N in 
the west-central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds and the sea 
heights will increase to the east and southeast of the Windward 
Islands on Saturday, from a tropical wave that will move across 
the area during the upcoming weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is across Florida, shifting west. 
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and 
isolated to widely scattered moderate are from 70W westward. NE-
to-E winds, 15 to 20 knots, are in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba 
and 20N northward from 70W westward. Abundant moisture is in the 
same region also.

Hurricane Epsilon near 30.6N 60.9W 955 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW 
at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Epsilon will 
move north of the area to 31.6N 61.1W this afternoon. The 
gradient between western Atlantic Ocean high pressure and 
Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas in the
western waters through Friday. Long-period northeast swell will 
continue to impact the waters to the north and northeast of the 
Bahamas, through late Saturday. 

$$
Mundell