AXNT20 KNHC 282030
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Large Swell:
Low pressure of 1012 mb is located near 28N44W. A large area of
fresh to strong winds are noted of the low center. Large swell
generated by this system continues to propagate across the
Atlantic forecast waters, with seas of 10 to 12 ft covering
mainly the area N of 28N and E of 50W. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish this evening as the low weakens. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
Caribbean Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near
the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Seas will build to
10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will
improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N13W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 04N40W to the equator
near 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 04N
between 11W and 48W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, with high pressure
prevailing elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft,
are noted over the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 4-7 ft are elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf
States into the western Atlantic will sustain fresh easterly
winds across the the southern Gulf into tonight and the Straits
of Florida through Sun. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also
expected at the northwestern and west-central Gulf through tonight,
ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sun, then
stall and dissipate by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate
easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf into late week.
A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11
ft range over the central Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, gale-force ENE trades at the south-central
Caribbean Sea will redevelop this evening. They will reach gale
force again Sun evening, and likely pulse again Tue night. Fresh
to strong easterly trades will prevail south of Cuba and near the
Windward Passage through Sun night, and across the north-
central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
large swell propagating across the central Atlantic.
A cold front extends from 31N62W to the Bahamas. Low pressure of
1012 mb is located near 28N44W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the low. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere N
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are S of 20N and W of 30W, with
moderate to fresh winds E of 30W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range
N of 25N between 30W and 55W, and 6-8 ft elsewhere N of 20N and E
of 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 60W, with Seas of 5-8 ft
over the remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from
just SE of Bermuda to the Central Bahamas. This front will
dissipate by later Sun. A tight pressure gradient will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the
Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the
Windward passage through Sun. Southerly flow will increase
offshore northeastern Florida Sun night ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the western Atlantic by Mon night.